{"id":513,"date":"2019-01-31T12:49:11","date_gmt":"2019-01-31T12:49:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/?p=513"},"modified":"2019-05-17T11:58:11","modified_gmt":"2019-05-17T11:58:11","slug":"article-forkonomy-revisited-where-are-they-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/article-forkonomy-revisited-where-are-they-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Forkonomy Revisited: Where Are They Now?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"3d7e\">51% of a year has passed, let\u2019s check back in on our plucky and hopeful minority networks.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[Note: This is a follow-up commentary after the original&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@parallelind\/towards-an-analytical-discipline-of-forkonomy-summer-2018-e6da993ee3f9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Forkonomy<\/a>&nbsp;paper (now on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/hackernoon.com\/towards-an-analytical-discipline-of-forkonomy-summer-2018-e6da993ee3f9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Hacker Noon<\/a>) was written and self-published on&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/pllel.com\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">pllel.com<\/a>&nbsp;in summer 2018 with&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/180810-forkonomy-v3.pdf\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">last revision 10th August<\/a>. Figures come from&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Forkonomy?src=hash\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">#forkonomy tweets<\/a>, original manuscript and presentation slides from&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=d_7f16_29Mc\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ETC Summit Forkonomy talk<\/a>&nbsp;in September 2018.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Introduction: ELI5 Forkonomy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Even the original distributed network started out centralised. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4WujJuTbWu\">https:\/\/t.co\/4WujJuTbWu<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/forkonomy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#forkonomy<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WhcNZ5SgV8\">pic.twitter.com\/WhcNZ5SgV8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1015537263214841857?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 7, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/project-update-forkonomy-aka-blockchains-time-travel\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Forkonomy<\/a>\u201d was a shower thought and though the idea initially seems awkward and quirky, in retrospect it was simply the concrescence of my previous and current proclivities in the domains of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1021\/ic0623112\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">time (small)<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0009261403012880\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">time (large)<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1021\/ic900924w\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">light<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1021\/jo801557e\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">space (small)<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/sterrewacht.nl\/events\/phdtheses\/bisschop\/chap3.pdf\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">space (large)<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/pllel.com\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cryptocurrency<\/a>. Thinking about a proof-of-work cryptocurrency network as a thermodynamic system with its own internal synchronicity (target interblock time, deterministic coin supply schedule) in energetic balance \u2019twixt enthalpy (mining) and entropy (forks, time) is pretty straightforward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">perhaps one day a discipline of forkonomy will provide a rationalised framework for the uncertain fates of blockchain networks, as the Hertzsprung-Russell Diagram does for the stellar lifecycle. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/viTe5biMpC\">pic.twitter.com\/viTe5biMpC<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1009152919587999745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 19, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Blockchains \u2261 Time Machines. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OlrmqRvSuX\">pic.twitter.com\/OlrmqRvSuX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1021342268882661377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 23, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The approach of studying codebases and ledgers fragmenting into incompatible but similar network factions doubtless diffused across from Parallel Industries\u2019&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/project-update-classification-approaches-for-cryptographic-assets\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TokenSpace<\/a>cryptographic asset taxonomy research. Combining these with the astronomical observation of stale light from faraway objects and stellar taxonomic tools such as the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram which use a star\u2019s physical properties to understand probable fates, and there\u2019s the makings of misspent summer weekends seeking further conceptual parallels and predictive tools through the joining of celestial and cryptographic dots in the hope of catching glimpses of possible futures through family resemblance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">19\/ The real <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/forkonomy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#forkonomy<\/a> is the Linux Torvalds&#39; Linux kernel, splintering and seeding itself as widely as it is embedded deeply. Open source code is viral and resilient when the will exists to replicate it. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ap3xjie70E\">pic.twitter.com\/Ap3xjie70E<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1008019703254667264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 16, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Writing the paper and crudely crunching chain data looking for patterns and potential heuristics was a great deal of fun, and in the course of doing so inadvertently put my neck on the line a few times. One might call them&nbsp;<em>forkcasts&nbsp;<\/em>(groan), making some&nbsp;<em>forkward-looking&nbsp;<\/em>projections (groan again) as to the likely fates of PoW cryptocurrencies unable to attract the majority of hashrate for their particular hashing algorithm, activist fork campaigns fomenting inside discontented growing networks and potential mitigations thereof. In September 2018 I spoke at the second Ethereum Classic Summit in Seoul about forkonomy with speculation on positive and negative possible futures for ETC in addition to discussion of the BTC\/BCH situation and the ongoing BTCP&nbsp;<em>clusterfork<\/em>&nbsp;(okay enough, sorry) with particular emphasis on susceptibility of minority chains to thermodynamic attacks as the bear market extended. Let\u2019s take a look at our three pairs of sibling stars\u200a\u2014\u200aBTC\/BCH, ETC\/ETH, ZCL\/BTCP\u200a\u2014\u200aand see how they\u2019ve been getting on in their thermodynamic tugs of love.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"300\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"no\" allow=\"autoplay\" src=\"https:\/\/w.soundcloud.com\/player\/?url=https%3A\/\/api.soundcloud.com\/tracks\/541744533&#038;color=%23ff5500&#038;auto_play=false&#038;hide_related=false&#038;show_comments=true&#038;show_user=true&#038;show_reposts=false&#038;show_teaser=true&#038;visual=true\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Where Are They Now?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>i) BTC\/BCH<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">6\/ A brief detour into Bitcoin-land to look at forks as a psuedo-governance mechanism for better or worse. In general, the less &quot;governed&quot; a network is, the greater the perceived resistance to &quot;mandatory upgrades&quot; via hard fork, though some perceive soft forks as coercive also. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QPC6dOocTm\">pic.twitter.com\/QPC6dOocTm<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1049229552029978625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 8, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since we last met, two have become three! Who would have thought that a raggedy ensemble of protesters bandying together for various reasons might not see eye-to-eye? After another network fragmentation, further division of already slim hashrates and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/breakermag.com\/the-bitcoin-cash-hash-war-by-the-numbers\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">assorted hostilities<\/a>&nbsp;on either side of the chain split have left prospects for both BSV and BAB (aka the \u201cnew BCH\u201d) looking rather dour. There was an expected amount of drama around the fork event as it was planned and contentious, with threats of inter-chain attacks and aggressive market actions. At time of writing, each of BCH\u2019s spawn command ~1 EH\/s in comparison to BTC\u2019s 30\u201350 EH\/s long-term range with market pricing BTC $3500, BSV $75 and BAB $125. Data from&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.blockchair.com\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">www.blockchair.com<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.coincap.io\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">www.coincap.io<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/720\/1%2AMm9r7APQ1iskKKS2C9DDtg.png?w=620&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption>BCH (grey), BAB (Orange) and BSV (red) network hashrates. Source:&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cash.coin.dance\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cash.coin.dance<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whereas the difference in price and hashrate between BTC and BCH in August 2018 was approximately 10\u201315:1, the BSV\/BAB split and resultant negative sum implications have lengthened this out to 30\u201340:1 at time of writing in late January 2019. What was then a marginally vulnerable network to 51% attacks is now at serious risk. Regardless of the amount of SHA-256 hash available on distributed marketplaces such as Nicehash and Amazon EC3, it is feasible that a single entity could amass 3% of BTC\u2019s hashrate and perform a solo attack<strong>,&nbsp;<\/strong>especially given the amount of shelved \/ unsold ASIC inventory available at this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Went around some electronics markets in Shenzhen. Short story about Bitmain.<br><br>On the main street, closed down &quot;Antminer&quot; store with GPUs and various parts strewn around. Hard to say if it was official, probably not. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IadsGCMpl2\">pic.twitter.com\/IadsGCMpl2<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1074210364135370752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 16, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fun story: I wrote an even bleaker forecast for BCH\u2019s future in an earlier draft but pared it back after receiving comments that it may be going too far. Ha! Still, some summer \u201918 predictions regarding the increasingly uncomfortable situation that the BCH family find themselves in\u200a\u2014\u200abetween chain security and miner bribes\u200a\u2014\u200ahave not yet come to pass (see below tweet) other than&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.bitmex.com\/bitcoin-cash-abcs-rolling-10-block-checkpoints\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">checkpointing on BAB<\/a>. Both networks are exhibiting ever increasing centralisation of network infrastructure, hashrate and human leadership so expect further mandatory \u201cupgrades\u201d. A lot of them, sometimes at very short notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">something&#39;s going to have to give, thermodynamic security or monetary policy.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zTdIZjHqha\">https:\/\/t.co\/zTdIZjHqha<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iXuiTd5alz\">pic.twitter.com\/iXuiTd5alz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1021506986180059136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 23, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for Bitcoin, the bear market has had an impact on BTC hashrate, ending a parabolic trend that extended much further than the price. Though the price of BTC today is around half of that in the summer (~$7000 versus ~$3500), network hashrates then and now are both in the 30\u201340 EH\/s range. The security model of Bitcoin\u2019s PoW remains largely untested in the ASIC era, with the only obvious network weaknesses being external entities\u2019 political, technical and regulatory actions, miner \/ foundry oligopolies, cryptographic vulnerabilities and consensus-breaking code errors in implementations such as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoincore.org\/en\/2018\/09\/20\/notice\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CVE-2018\u201317144<\/a>. Still some time to go before miner subsidy attenuation becomes a pressing concern with respect to fee market development, with everything depending on BTC price to provide the necessary incentives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">It&#39;s not a &quot;cop-out&quot;, some people have more stringent expectations of a money than others.<br><br>Until Bitcoin is a few subsidy halvings further down the road and the interplay of L2\/sidechains versus on-chain tx fee market is clear, then those who prefer data to faith won&#39;t be 100%.<\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1047878081007026177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 4, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The question remains open as to how L2 appendages such as sidechains and off-chain payment channels will affect this by offering alternative transaction pathways which minimise writing to the blockchain and consequentially demand for block space. Side note on the recent launch of Grin\u200a\u2014\u200aa network based on the novel MimbleWhimble blockchain construction \u2014with a constant, indefinite coin issuance rate (60\/min) which may better mitigate against a lack of a transaction fee market in Bitcoin\u2019s subsidy halving regime, by exhibiting a smoothed and steeper initial decline in effective inflation rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/720\/1%2AKzusUUhlVB1Vg8uzeXvftg.png?w=620&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption>Monetary Policies of BTC (blue) and Grin (orange) as demonstrated by effective annual supply increase. Source:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/plot.ly\/~Bobby_Digital\/1\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/plot.ly\/~Bobby_Digital\/1\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ii) ETC\/ETH<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s been an eventful few months in the land of Ethereum-based networks. The expected Ethash FPGAs and ASICs have not been spotted in the wild by any great number but their effects may be being felt already. It will be interesting to see if nonce fingerprints will eventually be evident as has been the case for&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/100trillionUSD\/status\/1081217034485149697\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">BTC<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/khannib\/status\/1082280569449447424\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">XMR<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETH&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ETH<\/a>&#39;s nonce space does not present any visible perturbation, but that doesn&#39;t mean there&#39;s no ASICs running. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9roHksxhmu\">pic.twitter.com\/9roHksxhmu<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Antoine Le Calvez (@khannib) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/khannib\/status\/1082289864022859776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 7, 2019<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There have been 51% attacks and deep chain reorgs on minority Ethash chains MUSIC, ELLA and PIRL, with exchange double-spending the typical approach for attackers to ROI. PIRL has taken an approach to mitigate these hazards with client-based solutions which would penalise offline nodes for attempting to rejoin the network and broadcast a rapid series of blocks (<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/pirl\/pirlguard-innovative-solution-against-51-attacks-87dd45aa1109\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PIRLguard<\/a>). UBQ instead&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.ubiqsmart.com\/introducing-ubqhash-8fa515befd7\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">changed its hashing algorithm<\/a>&nbsp;to avoid Nicehash \/ ASIC susceptibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Talks from <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ETCSummit2018?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#ETCSummit2018<\/a> are surfacing, this one by Chen Min from Linzhi ASIC developers was intriguing.  Lavasnow shaping up to be a beastly Ethash cruncher. Had a good chat with her afterwards &amp; hope to visit their Shenzen facility soon ^_^<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nm3rkOsRc5\">https:\/\/t.co\/nm3rkOsRc5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1045003085108703232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 26, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although a big theme of this work has been looking at the vulnerabilities of minority PoW chains to attack and defensive strategies\u200a\u2014\u200aand also that this work was presented at the ETC Summit in autumn 2018\u200a\u2014\u200ait was a surprise to see Ethereum Classic itself fall prey to these attacks as well. Read the below articles by Phyrooo and Pyskell to put the&nbsp;<strong><em>temporarily disruptive nature<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;of a majority attack into context. However, in these early innings of cryptocurrency, exploits against exchanges provide a strong disincentive for listing minority PoW networks unless precautions are taken with confirmations required for transactions to be considered final. Seeing altcoin exchanges like Cryptopia listing small PoW networks getting constantly exploited (and suspending operations recently) is a universal warning sign, especially for projects with little value proposition other than speculation and trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">What these &quot;ZOMG 51% attacks world is ending&quot; stories miss is that mitigating techniques exist &#8211; suitable for ASIC or GPU-mined networks &#8211; to avoid PoW algo switch. For example, HoriZen and PIRL have adopted alternative chain-selection rules: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BqWk6v3L91\">https:\/\/t.co\/BqWk6v3L91<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/forkonomy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#forkonomy<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oFL2MyMLyi\">https:\/\/t.co\/oFL2MyMLyi<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1069672691802742791?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 3, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a style=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/ethereum-classic\/51-attacks-arent-a-network-failure-81a7e197bfd9\"><strong>51% attacks aren\u2019t a network failure<\/strong><br><em>In regards to recent events on Ethereum Classic blockchain, I\u2019ve decided to write a bit about 51% attacks since there\u2019s\u2026<\/em>medium.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@pyskell\/your-exchange-needs-more-confirmations-the-bitconf-measure-872b69babc8f\"><strong>Your Exchange Needs More Confirmations: The BitConf Measure<\/strong><br><em>In cryptocurrency we regularly advise against accepting zero-conf transactions but are entirely happy to accept\u2026<\/em>medium.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It remains to be seen what path ETC will take in order to mitigate attacks, the usual gamut of options are being discussed by stakeholders in a rational way\u200a\u2014\u200aI was present for the post-mortem call and reiterated my opinion that changing mining algorithm in a knee-jerk response is probably sub-optimal to penalising attackers withholding blocks. It appears that the continued delays of ETH\u2019s attempted transition to a sharded, proof-of-stake network\u200a\u2014\u200athereby bequeathing the Ethash majority to ETC or another as-yet-unborn timeline\u200a\u2014\u200ahas exacerbated the issue alongside the protracted bear market and abundance of marshallable hashrate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Would like to explore chain selection rule tweaks before PoW changes, if ETH is switching to ProgPoW then ETC would be the dominant Ethash chain which would be a strong position. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pSagneLAHO\">https:\/\/t.co\/pSagneLAHO<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1082674338699100160?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 8, 2019<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is also discussion of\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" style=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/ethereum-developers-give-tentative-greenlight-to-asic-blocking-code\" target=\"_blank\">ETH adopting an \u201cASIC-resistant\u201d algorithm<\/a> (ProgPoW) while waiting upon Casper and prior to the recent failed Constantinople network upgrade a\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/ethereumprogpow\/my-political-decision-to-hardfork-ethereum-for-progpow-implementation-and-here-is-why-19e5b66bb985\" target=\"_blank\">pro-ProgPoW activist fork faction\u00a0<\/a>appeared with the ostensible goal of rejecting the EIP-1234 reduction in mining reward from 3 to 2 ETH per block in addition. It seems inevitable that either (or both) ETH-ASIC and ETH-ProgPoW factions would attempt a fork should the network not move in their favour. Additionally, due to the 11th hour cancellation of the Constantinople upgrade, the so-called \u201c<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/econoar\/status\/1085355924779200512\" target=\"_blank\">difficulty bomb<\/a>\u201d has now activated on ETH, having been repeatedly delayed by previous hard forks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Thread. Also highly relevant for Ethash ecosystem as high performance ASICs come online and Ethereum attempts the pivot to PoS. Notice that minority networks such as Ubiq have already changed algos, others such as Pirl amended chain selection rule after attacks.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/forkonomy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#forkonomy<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iu1dy9Q4wC\">https:\/\/t.co\/iu1dy9Q4wC<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1067933365981065216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 29, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In terms of social layer network politics, both ETH and ETC have had issues of differing types. ETH\u2019s diverse stakeholders are pulling in different directions regarding key technological design choices such as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/greg_colvin\/status\/1072370832754819072\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">state rent<\/a>&nbsp;and allegations of insider&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@lrettig\/how-open-is-too-open-bfc412cf0d24\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">asymmetry \/ opacity<\/a>&nbsp;at crucial meetings. ETC may be suffering from a \u201ctragedy of the commons\u201d scenario as hitherto leading core development company&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/etcdev\/status\/1069625401515872256\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ETCDEV<\/a>&nbsp;shut its doors due to a funding crunch, with accompanied suspicions of power struggles for prized network resources such as the Github repositories and experienced core developers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Interesting is that both ETH and ETC&#39;s struggles appear to be growing pains, arising from fracturing stakeholder classes as ecosystems build out. They appear to represent quite extreme polarities &#8211; top-down &quot;core dev \/ foundation&quot; central planning vs P2P power vacuum. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/forkonomy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#forkonomy<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1068973960845496321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ratios of hashrate and price between ETH and ETC are approximately 20\u201330:1, similar to BTC\/BAB-BSV ratios discussed above but ETC has an additional light at the end of the tunnel\u200a\u2014\u200aor is it a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ethresear.ch\/c\/casper\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">friendly ghost<\/a>\u201d who will remove incentives for miners to stay on ETH? Data from&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.blockchair.com\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">www.blockchair.com<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.coincap.io\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">www.coincap.io<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Just going to leave the below few tweets documenting my ETC Summit talk here. We\u2019ll have to wait and see what happens with ETH regarding PoW to observe the effects downstream in the Ethash ecosystem.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">4\/ What ingredients are needed to sustain a &quot;minority&quot; network fragment such as <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ETC<\/a>? For a PoW network, it&#39;s going to need significant hashrate to avoid replay attacks, re-orgs &amp; wipeout risks &#8211; especially if <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/codeislaw?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#codeislaw<\/a> &amp; immutability is respected. Devs, users &amp; businesses too. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/G63TJHT4VP\">pic.twitter.com\/G63TJHT4VP<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1049229546401292288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 8, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">13\/ Potential obstacles: <br>Mining pool centralisation<br>Gas arbitrage<br>DAO attacker \/ RHG remnants<br>Legacy issues e.g. with EVM \/ Solidity<br>Questions over ecosystem decision-making transparency<br>DAOs please! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/licuende?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@licuende<\/a> said at <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/HCPP18?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#HCPP18<\/a> that <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AragonProject?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@AragonProject<\/a> could work on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ETC<\/a>. Fork time? \ud83d\ude42 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/voTPnFraZA\">pic.twitter.com\/voTPnFraZA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1049278059629740033?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 8, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>iii) ZCL\/BTCP<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The disconnect between market cap and miner incentives for ledger forks such as BCH\/BSV\/BAB, BTG and BTCP has been discussed widely in recent months (<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.goodaudience.com\/bitcoin-market-value-to-realized-value-mvrv-ratio-3ebc914dbaee\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">here for example<\/a>) but it wasn\u2019t as blindingly obvious last summer. Indeed I received some stern criticism from a reviewer on my claim that market caps for minority ledger forks were heavily inflated in comparison to codebase forks. The below tweet sparked the realisation that all was not well in the land of BTCP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Holy shit. ZCL still has 4x hashrate of BTCP but market cap is 7x less.<br><br>If that&#39;s really the case, coin supply tricks are a helluva drug.<\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1004417738582962178?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By combining the UTXO sets of ZCL and BTC, BTCP aimed to leverage the Bitcoin name whilst heavily incentivising ZCL holders and buyers. It worked too, in the final \u201cjunk rally\u201d of 2018 ZCL pumped 100x in USD terms before beginning a protracted and decline in price of &gt;99%. ZCL is still bumbling along as a semi-zombified chain, with other spin-off ledger forks and fork-merges attempted. The client software got rather out of date and broken, making it hard to run a node over winter, and indeed to find peers and sync the chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">7\/ &quot;Bitcoin Private&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTCP&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTCP<\/a> was created by merging UTXO sets of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ZCL&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ZCL<\/a>. A network synthetically &quot;older&quot; than Bitcoin was created &#8211; but without high token price or on-chain tx fee market, miners are absent &amp; 51% attacks trivial. A pessimistic possible <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/rekt?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#rekt<\/a> future of Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CdBuHu5U4T\">pic.twitter.com\/CdBuHu5U4T<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1049232990252027905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 8, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With only half a million coins remaining unsupplied from the 21M cap, BTCP finds itself effectively a halving ahead of Bitcoin. With a low token fiat price, miners are not sufficiently incentivised to defend the chain and since there is an abundance of Equihash resource available launching thermodynamic attacks would be trivial. Indeed the hourly cost estimates in the paper had to be continually revised downwards, from &gt;$600\/hr initially, to &lt;$50\/hr now. As the supply schedule of ZCL, BTCP and BTC are directly comparable (4x factor in block time and subsidy to convert) we can think of BTCP as a&nbsp;<strong>time machine<\/strong>&nbsp;taking us forwards to the most pessimistic possible future of any Bitcoin-like network with a halving subsidy and fixed supply limit.&nbsp;<strong>This is the timeline in BTTF2 where Biff makes it bigtime.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As expected,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/this-college-freshman-is-out-to-51-attack-your-cryptocurrency\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">attacks were inevitable<\/a>. ZCL has &lt;5% of the ZEC hashrate and BTCP a further order of magnitude less. With Equihash ASICs on the scene they are sitting ducks. Both tokens are in the $1\u20131.50 price range, with a ZCL pre-fork ATH around $200. Data from coincap.io and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.coinmetrics.io\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">www.coinmetrics.io<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>BTCP forkcast: REKT with a high likelihood of upgrades&nbsp;.What\u2019s next for this white dwarf chain? Pretty much every mitigation you can think of has been discussed\u200a\u2014\u200aHorizen\u2019s chain selection rule update&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/robviglione\/status\/1082744461984260096\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><em>seems to be working for them<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Interesting tweak to Nakamoto Consensus proposed for <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ZEN&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ZEN<\/a>. <br><br>By penalising selfish\/malicious miners for withholding blocks &amp; private mining they hope to prevent repeats of the recent majority attack.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/forkonomy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#forkonomy<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AWZgnBRCJf\">https:\/\/t.co\/AWZgnBRCJf<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1037651345745080321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 6, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Something else interesting and related! The wizards at CoinMetrics who I had badgered to run BTCP and ZCL nodes last summer,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/coinmetrics.io\/bitcoin-private\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">recently uncovered a grand heist<\/a>&nbsp;with ~2 million coins secretly added to BTCP\u2019s shielded pool at the time of inserting the BTC UTXOs into the ledger. Indeed I had a great deal of problems getting the BTCP client to play nicely, as the few thousand blocks around the time of the operation were&nbsp;<strong>enormous<\/strong>&nbsp;and often crashed my workstation when parsing data for analysis.&nbsp;<strong>BTCP is the worst of all possible worlds.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Amazing chain forensics work by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinmetrics?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@coinmetrics<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/khannib?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@khannib<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nic__carter?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@nic__carter<\/a>. <br><br>Had also noticed irregularities around the time of the BTCP merge when parsing the chain data recently but was analysing blocktimes rather than UTXOs. More fodder for <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/forkonomy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#forkonomy<\/a> v3. Bravo! <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zOWm8V7Qch\">https:\/\/t.co\/zOWm8V7Qch<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1076997698467684352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 24, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>iv) Miscellany<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Assets atop forked networks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There was a brief note in the paper on security risks of \u201ctop heavy\u201d networks, where for example Ethereum can allow for a greater \u201cvalue\u201d of issued non-native tokens than the base protocol token. Read the great article below by\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@joelooney\" target=\"_blank\">Joe Looney<\/a>\u00a0to get a fuller understanding of the various hazards subsumed within this. Let\u2019s think about how non-native assets could be used as bargaining chips by forkers.\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/ethereumprogpow\/my-political-decision-to-hardfork-ethereum-for-progpow-implementation-and-here-is-why-19e5b66bb985\" target=\"_blank\">Offering to honour assets on a ledger fork network<\/a>\u00a0may skew hodler\u2019s incentives in ways that are hard to predict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a style=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@joelooney\/the-real-cost-of-cryptogoods-dd156f5df056\"><strong>The Real Cost of Cryptogoods<\/strong><br><em>The \u201crealness\u201d of these tokens is, in many ways, the most important facet to consider as both a token issuer and a\u2026<\/em>medium.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>#forkgov: Fork-resistance and governance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the original paper Tezos and Decred were discussed as networks addressing network governance by inhibiting forks in different ways. Taking a high-level perspective, let\u2019s address the most general question: are these two notions meaningfully compatible? If we think of any natural process in the Universe\u200a\u2014\u200afrom the celestial to the tribal\u200a\u2014\u200aas accretions and communities grow in size and complexity,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/unenumerated.blogspot.com\/2017\/02\/money-blockchains-and-social-scalability.html\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">scalability<\/a>&nbsp;challenges increase markedly.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/tezos\/amending-tezos-b77949d97e1e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Minimising accidental chain splits during protocol upgrades is a worthy goal.<\/a>&nbsp;However, denying a mechanism to allow factions a graceful and orderly exit has upsides in preserving the moat of network effect but at the cost of internal dissonance, which may grow over time. Sound familiar?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">BrexitCoin combines Proof-of-Flag governance and historical obfuscation so that mistakes are guaranteed to be repeated. Unelected leaders of BrexitCoin committee must wait for a scandal to occur before the next &quot;democracyblock&quot; may be proposed.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cNpICRxHCI\">https:\/\/t.co\/cNpICRxHCI<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dsgYr09UG5\">pic.twitter.com\/dsgYr09UG5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Byzantine Business School (@BusinessSch001) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BusinessSch001\/status\/1003649008450097154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 4, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One can look at ledger forks in a few different ways as good, bad or neutral:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[Good] A\/B\/\u2026\/Z testing of different technical, economic or philosophical approaches aka \u201cLet the market decide, fork freedom baby!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[Bad] Deleterious to network effects of nascent currency protocols with respect to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Metcalfe%27s_law\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Metcalfe<\/a>&nbsp;or (IMO much more relevant)&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3281845\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">transactome-informed network capital theory<\/a>&nbsp;after Gogerty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[Neutral] An inevitability of entropy and\/or finite social scalability as these networks grow and mature it is not realistic to keep all stakeholders sufficiently aligned for optimal network health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As such, protocol-layer fork resistance and effective public fora with voting mechanisms can certainly be helpful tools, but there is a question as to whether democracy (<em>the tyranny of the majority<\/em>) should be exercised in all cases. If there was a \u201cblock size\u201d style civil war in Tezos or Decred with no acceptable compromise in sight, would the status quo still be the best situation in all cases?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Worth noting that I predicted the first Tezos hard fork over a year ago (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tzlibre?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@tzlibre<\/a>)?.<br><br>There is *nothing* that supercedes fork-based governance for cryptocurrencies, and that is a good thing. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/E0jRomnvqi\">https:\/\/t.co\/E0jRomnvqi<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Philip Daian (@phildaian) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/phildaian\/status\/1047890841338044416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 4, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My perspective is that fork-resistance will largely redistribute the manifestations of discontent rather than provide a lasting cure to ills, and the native network governance mechanisms&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/asymmetries.pllel.com\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">may be gamed by either incumbents or ousters<\/a>. More time is needed to see how decision-making regarding technical evolution unfolds in both networks. Decred seems to be sitting pretty with a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@richardred\/the-role-of-decred-voters-in-defending-against-majority-attacks-ec658af0a8fd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">fairly attack-resilient hybrid PoW\/PoS system<\/a>, but there are some \u201cexclusionary forces\u201d in the network leading to the escalating DCR-denominated costs of staking tickets necessary to receive PoS rewards and participate in proposal voting, denying access to the mechanism to smaller holders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Demand for tickets and staking rewards naturally increases with ongoing issuance, as the widening pool of coin holders wanting to mitigate dilution also does. As the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.decred.org\/proof-of-stake\/proof-of-stake\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ticket price is dynamic and demand-responsive<\/a>, it creates upwards pressure which would make tickets inaccessible for a growing proportion of coin holders. At time of writing, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/decred\/dcr-ticket-splitting-all-you-need-to-know-b8edc6b65db3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ticket splitting<\/a>\u201d allowing smaller holders to engage in PoS is available from some stake pools and self-organised collectives but the process is not yet automated in reference clients. On the other hand, the ongoing bear market has seen the USD ticket price fall from ~$8\u201310k USD at January and May 2018 peaks to ~$2k USD today in late January 2019 so those entering Decred with capital from outside the cryptocurrency domain would likely be undeterred. Data from&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dcrdata.org\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">dcrdata.org<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.coincap.io\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">coincap.io<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/720\/1%2ApGKjkQ18bAI5uHVca0564g.png?w=620&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption>50 day moving average of DCR staking ticket price. Source: https:\/\/explorer.dcrdata.org\/charts#ticket-price<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Further, as per Parallel Industries\u2019&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/project-update-classification-approaches-for-cryptographic-assets\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">TokenSpace taxonomy research<\/a>, staking rewards resemble dividends and token-based governance privileges resemble shareholder rights which make Decred appear a little closer to the traditional definition of a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/jpm.iijournals.com\/content\/23\/2\/86\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">capital asset<\/a>&nbsp;than pure PoW systems. This may or may not be an issue depending how regulation unfolds. Tezos has those potential issues plus the regulatory risk from the token sale. Decred\u2019s airdrop may not have distributed the coin as fairly as possible but will undoubtedly attract a lower compliance burden than a token sale or premine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cActivist Forks\u201d &amp; \u201cUnfounder Forks\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taking this a step further, these dissonant groups may conduct a&nbsp;<em>guerilla<\/em>&nbsp;campaign inside a network to focus attention on their cause. Last summer, a few anti-KYC factions of Tezos had appeared on social media outlets prior to network launch, however since the launch things have quietened down somewhat. One faction which still apparently intends to create a fork of Tezos changed tact and became a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tzlibre\/status\/1014850588901888000\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">delegated staker<\/a>&nbsp;within the network whilst continuing to voice dissent \u2014perhaps this \u201c<em>fork activism<\/em>\u201d can be interpreted as a response to the \u201cfork-resistance\u201d of Tezos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">No-one is being fooled by high-friction Futility tokens. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NHikROquE8\">https:\/\/t.co\/NHikROquE8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1058427148434898945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 2, 2018<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, what else could a fork activist do? Take a look around at the ongoing ICO&nbsp;<em>bonfire of the vanities<\/em>&nbsp;which is largely due to poorly thought out sales of high-friction&nbsp;<em>futility tokens<\/em>&nbsp;infringing on \/ attempting to circumvent various regulations around the world. The prospect of removing the token issuers and the tokens themselves once treasuries are liquidated (by themselves, or by lawmakers) and development ceases is quite attractive indeed\u200a\u2014\u200awill we see a wave of \u201c<em>unfounder forks<\/em>?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Been thinking about this, started already and will only happen more from here &#8211; &quot;activist&quot; or &quot;unfounder&quot; forks if you will.<br><br>Let the ICO vendors bear legal risk &amp; develop, then remove the token friction &amp; promoters upon launch\/runway expiry.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/forkonomy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#forkonomy<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7LpZvpbQhc\">https:\/\/t.co\/7LpZvpbQhc<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Parallel Industries \ua66e (@parallelind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1086915376485666816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 20, 2019<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Conclusions &amp; Future Directions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As with astronomy, there are no conclusions in forkonomy. Only endless observations as entropy drives time along. More work needs to be done analysing blockchain data harvested from nodes, especially on ZCL and BTCP. The quest for candidate network heuristics and tools continues. Studies of Decred\u2019s Politeia proposal &amp; voting system now that it\u2019s operational would be interesting too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/720\/1%2ARXjE1O9KALJVWPW78peZaA.png?w=620&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption>Which is your favourite fork?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Acknowledgements<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@richardred\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Richard Red<\/a>&nbsp;for details and resources regarding Decred\u2019s PoS and ticketing mechanism.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>51% of a year has passed, let\u2019s check back in on our plucky and hopeful minority networks. [Note: This is a follow-up commentary after the original&nbsp;Forkonomy&nbsp;paper (now on&nbsp;Hacker Noon) was written and self-published on&nbsp;pllel.com&nbsp;in summer 2018 with&nbsp;last revision 10th August. Figures come from&nbsp;#forkonomy tweets, original manuscript and presentation slides from&nbsp;ETC Summit Forkonomy talk&nbsp;in September 2018.] &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/article-forkonomy-revisited-where-are-they-now\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Forkonomy Revisited: Where Are They Now?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,12],"class_list":["post-513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-articles","tag-forkonomy","without-featured-image"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9ARiU-8h","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":83,"url":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/project-update-forkonomy-aka-blockchains-time-travel\/","url_meta":{"origin":513,"position":0},"title":"Project Update: Forkonomy aka Blockchains &#038; Time Travel","author":"pllel","date":"01\/11\/2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Since summer 2018, Wassim has been working on an unusual topic and has produced some talks and papers (manuscript as PDF \/\/ read on Medium \/\/ read on this site) introducing an analogical method that's been called \"forkonomy\". Just like astronomy takes observations from stellar sources at different phases of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Forkonomy\"","block_context":{"text":"Forkonomy","link":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/tag\/forkonomy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/DohWOpGXkAEc5oq.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":139,"url":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wassim-speaks-at-the-ethereum-classic-summit-in-seoul-on-september-12-13\/","url_meta":{"origin":513,"position":1},"title":"Forkonomy and Reaching Everyone head to the Ethereum Classic Summit in Seoul Sep 2018","author":"pllel","date":"01\/09\/2018","format":false,"excerpt":". Wassim speaks at the Ethereum Classic Summit in Seoul, Korea on September 12-13. In addition to a presentation on implications of Forkonomy for ETC, Wassim will also participate in a panel discussion on the topic of censorship resistance and immutability as informed by Reaching Everyone. More information can be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Events\"","block_context":{"text":"Events","link":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/tag\/events\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/etcsummitheader-300x169.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":660,"url":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/crypto-valley-sessions-in-zug-switzerland-may-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":513,"position":2},"title":"Crypto Valley Sessions in Zug, Switzerland May 2019","author":"pllel","date":"24\/03\/2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Wassim will be taking workshops and talks based on three Parallel Industries projects to Crypto Valley VC Labs in Zug, Switzerland in mid-May 2019. Forkonomy, DAOs and Don'ts and TokenSpace roadtrip upcoming, some sessions will be open to public attendance. More information here.","rel":"","context":"In \"DAOsandDont's\"","block_context":{"text":"DAOsandDont's","link":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/tag\/daosanddonts\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/cvvcwassim.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/cvvcwassim.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/cvvcwassim.jpeg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/cvvcwassim.jpeg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/cvvcwassim.jpeg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/cvvcwassim.jpeg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":554,"url":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wassim-on-lets-talk-etc-podcast-sep-18\/","url_meta":{"origin":513,"position":3},"title":"Wassim on &#8220;Let&#8217;s Talk ETC&#8221; Podcast (Autumn 2018)","author":"pllel","date":"16\/02\/2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Recently re-uploaded to our YouTube Channel is a conversation Wassim had with Prof. Christian Seberino of Let's Talk ETC podcast, following his appearance at the 2018 Ethereum Classic Summit. Among the topics covered were Wassim's background, Forkonomy as an analytical lens to understand possible futures of blockchain-archtected networks and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Forkonomy\"","block_context":{"text":"Forkonomy","link":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/tag\/forkonomy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":804,"url":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/mammoth-3-hour-podcast-conversation-between-wassim-and-vlad-costea\/","url_meta":{"origin":513,"position":4},"title":"Mammoth 3 hour podcast conversation between Wassim and Vlad Costea (Feb &#8217;19)","author":"pllel","date":"21\/06\/2019","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/twitter.com\/parallelind\/status\/1131467120578105344 https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=155i-obez4c","rel":"","context":"In \"Forkonomy\"","block_context":{"text":"Forkonomy","link":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/tag\/forkonomy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/155i-obez4c\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":696,"url":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/what-the-forkgov-article-included-in-daostacks-decentralised-thriving-anthology\/","url_meta":{"origin":513,"position":5},"title":"&#8220;What The #ForkGov&#8221; article included in DAOStack&#8217;s &#8220;Decentralised Thriving&#8221; Anthology","author":"pllel","date":"11\/04\/2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Wassim's \"What The #ForkGov\" article exploring fork-based governance of decentralised networks has been included in DAOStack's \"Decentralised Thriving\" Anthology. Download it from here.","rel":"","context":"In \"Articles\"","block_context":{"text":"Articles","link":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/tag\/articles\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-from-2019-04-11-16-22-56.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-from-2019-04-11-16-22-56.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-from-2019-04-11-16-22-56.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-from-2019-04-11-16-22-56.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=513"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/513\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":540,"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/513\/revisions\/540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pllel.com\/industries\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}