Wassim on “Let’s Talk ETC” Podcast (Autumn 2018)

Recently re-uploaded to our YouTube Channel is a conversation Wassim had with Prof. Christian Seberino of Let’s Talk ETC podcast, following his appearance at the 2018 Ethereum Classic Summit. Among the topics covered were Wassim’s background, Forkonomy as an analytical lens to understand possible futures of blockchain-archtected networks and the Reaching Everyone initative to widen access to cryptocurrencies with particular emphasis on the economically and politically disadvantaged.

Q&A on Reaching Everyone: the Political and Humanitarian Potential of Bitcoin

This conversation with In The Mesh was recently published on their website. Wassim Alsindi, director of research at Parallel Industries, is currently co-writing a series of articles In The Mesh in which he’s deep-diving into bitcoin and the potential for cryptocurrency to be leveraged to assist those living under authoritarian rule. If you’ve missed them, be sure to check out parts I and II and come back soon for the last two installments. Wassim’s take on everything “crypto” is incisive, studied, and worth listening to, and he has an interesting background, ranging from academe to experimental music. So we chatted with him to learn more about his background and get his perspective on some current trends in the cryptosphere.

Kevin Durkin for In The Mesh

When did you first hear about cryptocurrencies and what were your thoughts about it at that time?
My life before Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies was as an experimental musician and decentralised arts organisation founder, manager of interesting creative technology projects and festival curator. Whilst on a music tour around the US West Coast in 2012 we went to a friend-of-a-friend’s place in Silicon Valley, he opened his closet and said “check this out, I’m doing this thing called mining Bitcoin”. It took a while to be convinced, the idea sounded great but everything I could find online looked quite dubious — Mt. Gox, Bitcoinica, BitInstant and so on — and as I wasn’t a computer scientist or cryptographer the detailed discussions were beyond me. It wasn’t until 2014/5 during what may have been Bitcoin’s darkest days that I started to get really interested. The idea of natively digital money that isn’t controlled by anyone has obvious appeal, but surviving the Gox incident showed me that the technology had some serious resilience and could be a long-lived proposition.

Wassim Alsindi

Lately, Bitcoin and other coins have been losing financial value. How do you see this turn of events and the claims that cryptocurrency is and always was a “bubble”?
Well, the facts don’t lie, Bitcoin had a cycle bottom in 2015 at around $180 and two years later it was trading at a hundred times that price. As much as I favour Bitcoin’s characteristics and qualities as the first natively digital commodity and (in time) money, we do have to ask ourselves if that kind of price action is really sustainable or desirable. Volatility is acceptable in a commodity or speculative vehicle, but if people around the world are going to adopt it for monetary use we need to see some more price stability, increased liquidity and less friction in the conversion of our existing state monies to cryptocurrency. Was it a bubble? Probably. But not the first, and likely not the last either. So, are they bubbles or market cycles as a new asset is adopted, matures technically and becomes monetised? That is in the eye of the beholder.

Your interest in cryptocurrency seems to peak at times of others’ fear/panic. Why is that?

Wassim is in it for the tech.

It’s somewhat of a cliché these days but I’ve been a technology researcher my whole adult life, so I really am here for the tech and the freedom. My interest has been steadily building over the years and having wrapped up previous commitments I have nothing better to do now. I don’t take pleasure in the bear market, it’s been very difficult for me and for Parallel Industries too. We’re operating on a shoestring, and the string keeps getting shorter every time the market takes a leg down. I had hoped to bootstrap the organisation on an open-source donations model but this seems very difficult at the moment — even organisations and developers who directly contribute to these protocols are struggling. All the same, every day that Bitcoin survives in the wild it gets stronger and more widely known. These days you don’t have to ask most people in the developed world if they’ve heard of it, they just want explanations and/or advice.

You’ve innovated a field of fork future studies, called forkonomy. How do you hope it will impact the crypto space?

The research area arose from a conversation with a Twitter friend who was monitoring hashrate on various networks using the Equihash algorithm. We noticed that a new coin (BTCP) had a much higher “market capitalisation” but a fraction of the hashrate of the project it had been borne from (ZCL). Due to the novel “fork-merge” operation used to generate the new ledger, a coin with an effective age greater that Bitcoin’s was created.

So we have been afforded a glimpse into a possible future of Bitcoin, albeit a nightmare scenario where the network has not achieved its goal of developing a transaction fee market before the mining subsidy attenuates. The goal is to find similar anomalies as they arise and relate them to the possible futures of major networks. Having spent some time as an experimental astrophysicist, I like to compare this idea with the stellar taxonomy of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram which predicts the likely fates of stars based on their temperature and luminosity.

Still some way to go before we have a suite of robust and predictive analytical tools, we are very much in the alchemical phase of cryptocurrency.

How has your background has made you sensitive to the potential uses of cryptocurrencies by people living under oppressive regimes?
Without going into too much detail, the “political and humanitarian hacking” potential of decentralised technologies in general and Bitcoin in particular are very real for Iraqi diaspora such as myself. For those who were able to leave the country under Saddam’s rule as some of my family did, one of the hardest things was to move money or value from place to place. Bank accounts had been frozen, confiscations of gold and cash were commonplace at airports, bandits would patrol the desert regions close to frontiers looking for easy pickings and scholars’ international funding was withdrawn suddenly. Given the above, it is not hard to see promise in these nascent technologies to re-empower the individual and community at the expense of tyrants, institutions and nation-states. The fact that we can engineer tools, solutions and strategies for people living under oppression or conflict to have government-hard, unconfiscatable pseudo-monetary assets completely changes things for people in the most unfortunate and compromised situations.

The “Byzantine Generals” in Wassim’s family.

What kinds of uses of cryptocurrency do you envision that can do the most for people in those situations?
I would say that only a handful of cryptocurrencies truly show the resilience (today or as future potential) to withstand these sorts of situations. These are the ones with sufficiently mature and dispersed networks that have a defined focus on immutability, privacy and censorship-resistance that also lack central points of failure such as conspicuous leaders, companies or foundations. Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum Classic are the examples I have identified having deeply studied the cryptocurrency space for the past six and a half years. (Happy to hear of any more — please hit me up on Twitter, even if it is a smaller / newer network.) The uses are limited only by the ingenuity of the brilliant minds worldwide who do and will work on these issues, and that is what Reaching Everyone is really about — nothing more complicated than a non-profit, unorganised initiative to plant these seeds in curious minds: that we must not forget the rest of the planet as the fortunate ones create a new world of financial freedom. But we don’t have to get too hand-wringing about it — this is not about “Western guilt”. Incentives drive Bitcoin and everyone can act according to their own rational self-interests here. Furthermore, the less resources people have at hand, the more resourceful they tend to be. Anyone who has visited less wealthy countries can attest to this.

The experimental musician Goodiepal helped bring Wassim into his current exploration of the possibilities of cryptocurrency.

How did Reaching Everyone come to be?
The idea came about quite unexpectedly, despite all the above. Just over a year ago (December 2017) I was in London for a meeting with UK financial regulators as I have another project TokenSpace which has developed novel taxonomic frameworks to help see similarities and differences between cryptographic assets with the goal of preventing regulatory mis-steps. It just so happened that my much beloved Danish-Faroese friend and infamous radical experimental musician Goodiepal was performing with his band their annual Christmas show that evening. So I went along and found out that they had moved to Serbia and were raising funds for informal humanitarian work with refugees stuck in limbo there at the EU frontier. Among the biggest issues facing the people they had been helping were moving money internationally and exploitation / extortion by smugglers and mafia cartels. I simply put two and two together that cryptocurrency can provide at least a partial solution to these problems. I’m sorry that we haven’t been able to raise any money for the immediate cause but I hope we can still make a difference in the longer-term.

Your interests are wide-ranging and Parallel Industries seems to have a holistic view on the crypto world. What do you hope Parallel Industries will add most significantly in the near future to the crypto scene?
 Indeed things are moving forwards quickly on multiple fronts, and as well as pushing ahead as much as possible with Reaching Everyone, I am trying to take a wider view of what I consider the ontological meta-stack as applied to radically decentralised technologies. The “TokenSpace” supra-taxonomy research project is very close to outputting a manuscript after over a year of work and I recently revisited “Forkonomy” in early 2019 having learned some new skills at the command line for node operation, mining and directly harvesting blockchain data. There is another project entitled “DAOs and Don’ts” which investigates insider asymmetries in P2P networks, though it is a daunting prospect to comprehend the task at hand due to the sheer volume of cases encountered.

Q&A On TokenSpace: A New Conceptual Classification Framework For Cryptoassets

In search of fresh perspectives on the characteristics of cryptographic assets. This Q&A with Matt ฿ originally appeared in 21cryptos.com in December 2018. A comprehensive manuscript describing TokenSpace will be released soon, in the meantime more TokenSpace information over at pllel.com and on Twitter.

Q: Can you give a bit of background on yourself? What got you interested in cryptocurrency?

Sure, it’s been a winding road though so let’s not get too lost in details! I grew up in various towns and cities in the UK mostly reading maths and sci-fi books, stargazing, misusing home chemistry crystal growing kits, making music and playing way too many computer games. Spent a decade at universities studying, researching and managing scientific research in chemistry, physics and astronomy where I really got exposed to the idea of organising knowledge to further our understanding. My chemistry mentor (now YouTube-famous) Professor Sir Martyn Poliakoff is very likely the world’s leading connoisseur of the periodic table of the elements so I’ve had classification systems such as taxonomies on the brain for a while now.

After that I spent several years working with experimental music and arts, running a record label, organising educational activities, managing interesting projects and curating a festival. Whilst on a music tour around the US West Coast in 2012 we went to a friend-of-a-friend’s place in Silicon Valley, he opened his closet and said “check this out, I’m doing this thing called mining Bitcoin”. It took a while to be convinced, the idea sounded great but everything I could find online looked quite sketchy — Mt. Gox, Bitcoinica, BitInstant and all that — and it wasn’t until 2014/5 during what may have been Bitcoin’s darkest days that I started to get really interested. The idea of natively digital money that isn’t controlled by anyone has obvious appeal, but surviving the Gox incident showed me that the technology had some serious resilience and could be a long-lived proposition. Since then it’s gradually taken over my life as I’ve worked my way through various activities as a hobbyist — watching the markets, running nodes and following on-chain activity, messing around with coloured coins and smart contracts, mining and now research of various flavours through an independent research organisation Parallel Industries.

My Bitcoin sunrise, after playing a gig in Stanislaus National Forest in Summer 2012

Q: ELI5 TokenSpace.

TokenSpace is an attempt to make a relatively simple and easy to use comparison system out of the sprawling and confusing mess of cryptocurrencies, tokens and suchlike that we find ourselves with today. Think of it as a 3D “space” to place different assets inside, with each of the axes representing a characteristic that we can use to visually compare and contrast different assets. The position of an asset along each axis is determined by a scoring system between 0 and 1 for that characteristic, so that a score of zero means the asset doesn’t have those properties at all, and a score of one means it’s a textbook case. Where the score comes from is up to the user, it can be from an intuitive ‘gut feel’ perspective, a weighted taxonomy of different properties, a consensus view from a panel of advisors and so on. It all depends on the intended application.

TokenSpace visual impression

The primary application so far has been to look at the ongoing uncertainty as to the legal and regulatory status of cryptoassets and how similar or different they are to traditional asset types such as monies, securities or commodities. Obviously there is a lot of variation from asset to asset and it is becoming increasingly clear that government bodies are looking at these things closely.

It’s important to understand that the difference between concepts like TokenSpace and the periodic table of chemical elements is that we are still very much in a subjective realm with cryptoassets, and therefore any particular score should be taken with a pinch of salt. People are not going to have the same opinions on a lot of these things — if you follow the cryptocurrency and blockchain space then you will know that humans are VERY biased creatures! A future avenue for this work is to explore different perspectives to see where they come together and where they do not. You could say we are still in the occultist and alchemical phase of cryptocurrency…

Q: Tell us about the metrics you’re using to place the assets in this 3D space.

The axes I’ve chosen are for the properties Securityness, Moneyness and Commodityness — in other words how much a coin or token embodies or exhibits the characteristics of a securitised asset, a money or a commodity. Having encountered the fruitless debate of “I think token X is a security but you think it is not” innumerable times, and given the fact that these tokens and networks are hybrids of payment mechanisms, rights to on-chain property or “cashflows” like masternodes, value stores and consumable resources it seems reasonable to engender a greater ability to differentiate between more subtle differences in these assets.

One thing that’s nice about working with a conceptual framework like this is that it could easily be adapted for another purpose — for example Parallel Industries has begun a collaboration with DAO specialists who want to apply a similar approach to characterising the organisational structures that exist around decentralised networks and providing the right dimensions are found, there’s no reason why you can’t also build a set of taxonomies or scoring systems for that purpose. It does require careful thought and design choices to ensure you end up with a useful tool that can be meaningfully used.

Q: How would you distinguish between, for instance, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Tether and Polymath with this framework?

Good question. I think it’s reasonable to say that as assets, bitcoin and litecoin are often thought of as having “commodity-like” characteristics. People often refer to the digital gold and silver memes so they would place reasonably well on that, though bitcoin has much more liquidity and market depth so it would be easy to make a case for it being the premier digital commodity. Neither have much in common with securities though you could make a case that Litecoin’s founder and Foundation are somewhat relied upon for expectation of profit. As much as it’d be nice to say otherwise, bitcoin and litecoin still aren’t great as monies compared to fiat currency so they do still have some ground to cover there.

Tether functions primarily as a monetary substitute although it’s hard to be confident about it’s supply or ability to store value in the long term, though by virtue of its stability against fiat currency relative to traditional cryptocurrencies it does fulfil that purpose reasonably well in today’s high friction on and off ramps with exchanges for example. It doesn’t look much like a commodity or a security to me.

Polymath is not one I’m very familiar with, being a security token platform they are at least being upfront with that. As an ERC20 token on Ethereum with a central administrative team it does seem to have a lot of the hallmarks of a security and though there does appear to be some “utility” being used to issue securities tokens on their platform it could be argued that it has more commodityness than the typical Ethereum ICO vintage of 2017 or something quite useless such as XRP but nowhere near as much as bitcoin or litecoin.

Placing selected assets in TokenSpace. Scores are assigned by author.

Q: You’ve taken on the seemingly insurmountable task of attempting to classify cryptoassets. What are regulators doing wrong? What sort of organisations would benefit from this?

It’s a tall order indeed, and perhaps not surprising that it’s taken a while to get to this stage. The hope is that tools like TokenSpace can help coin and token issuers, lawyers, regulators and exchange operators get a better grip on the characteristics of different assets and avoid making misinformed decisions such as blanket bans, listing or adopting assets which might cause them compliance headaches or issuing poorly designed tokens which might land them in hot water later.

I’ve met a few regulators, token issuers and exchange compliance officers and it seems that a lot of the pitfalls seen so far (and many more to come) are from a lack of understanding of how these assets and the underlying networks function and evolve over time. It’s virtually impossible to have a complete grasp on these things — even Satoshi didn’t have every angle covered! The biggest mistake I’ve seen being made so far by officials is the rush to make sweeping pronouncements without being able to back them up with justifications that make the situation even less clear.

One example are comments made by US Securities and Exchange Commission officials that the ETH crowdsale was a securities offering but the Ethereum network has since become “sufficiently decentralised” and therefore is no longer a security. Taking that at face value, it suggests that at one point, ETH has passed through a “legal / not legal” boundary, but where and how? What made the difference and how was that decision arrived at? Node distribution? Concentration of tokens amongst insiders? Decentralisation of leadership? It’s not easy to resolve that with existing securities laws guidelines like the Howey test. What about network forks and issues such as The DAO exploit? These sorts of things are going to keep happening.

Example of an Arbitrary Regulatory Boundary Function

Q: What could regulators be doing better?

Make clearer statements, do your homework to understand the technology at play and be more upfront about decision-making processes! What are the metrics that regulators deem important? Why? Don’t build rigid legal frameworks that can’t cope with the breakneck pace of cryptocurrency developments. There will always be regulatory arbitrage with borderless technologies, just look at Malta and Puerto Rico. Which small nation will be next to reposition itself to attract jurisdiction-hoppers like Binance?

There is also the perennial issue of legions of “Blockchain Experts” who usually land influential advisory roles but seem to know very little about the ins and outs of applied cryptographic networks and assets associated with them. Having spent a very frustrating year in a business school environment having to deal with fakers and imbeciles claiming said proficiencies recently, I can confirm that this is a very real problem.

Q: What else is Parallel Industries working on? What are your future plans?

Currently Parallel Industries is very much in the bootstrap phase, limping along with very little income (thanks bear market) so it’s a major priority to bring in resources through sponsorship, consulting and contract research to operate sustainably so that we can expand our research activities and yours truly isn’t spread quite so thinly! The TokenSpace paper is finally approaching readiness and our Forkonomy project undertaking comparative analysis of network forks (such as BTC/BCH, ETC/ETH, BTCP/ZCL) has already had a number of outputs including a talk at the recent ETC Summit in Korea and a well-received paper. There’s also a project in progress named DAOs and Don’ts looking at power imbalances in cryptocurrency networks which has been on the sidelines a little too long. Keep an eye out for an article series on political and humanitarian hacks and use cases for cryptocurrencies in In The Mesh magazine under the title Reaching Everyone.

If any of that arouses curiosity do a look at our website www.pllel.com or find us on Twitter @parallelind. If you’re a crypto-millionaire looking for a way to lighten your bags and fund some research in the process, we can help with that too!

Forkonomy Revisited: Where Are They Now?

51% of a year has passed, let’s check back in on our plucky and hopeful minority networks.

[Note: This is a follow-up commentary after the original Forkonomy paper (now on Hacker Noon) was written and self-published on pllel.com in summer 2018 with last revision 10th August. Figures come from #forkonomy tweets, original manuscript and presentation slides from ETC Summit Forkonomy talk in September 2018.]

Introduction: ELI5 Forkonomy

Forkonomy” was a shower thought and though the idea initially seems awkward and quirky, in retrospect it was simply the concrescence of my previous and current proclivities in the domains of time (small)time (large)lightspace (small)space (large) and cryptocurrency. Thinking about a proof-of-work cryptocurrency network as a thermodynamic system with its own internal synchronicity (target interblock time, deterministic coin supply schedule) in energetic balance ’twixt enthalpy (mining) and entropy (forks, time) is pretty straightforward.

The approach of studying codebases and ledgers fragmenting into incompatible but similar network factions doubtless diffused across from Parallel Industries’ TokenSpacecryptographic asset taxonomy research. Combining these with the astronomical observation of stale light from faraway objects and stellar taxonomic tools such as the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram which use a star’s physical properties to understand probable fates, and there’s the makings of misspent summer weekends seeking further conceptual parallels and predictive tools through the joining of celestial and cryptographic dots in the hope of catching glimpses of possible futures through family resemblance.

Writing the paper and crudely crunching chain data looking for patterns and potential heuristics was a great deal of fun, and in the course of doing so inadvertently put my neck on the line a few times. One might call them forkcasts (groan), making some forkward-looking projections (groan again) as to the likely fates of PoW cryptocurrencies unable to attract the majority of hashrate for their particular hashing algorithm, activist fork campaigns fomenting inside discontented growing networks and potential mitigations thereof. In September 2018 I spoke at the second Ethereum Classic Summit in Seoul about forkonomy with speculation on positive and negative possible futures for ETC in addition to discussion of the BTC/BCH situation and the ongoing BTCP clusterfork (okay enough, sorry) with particular emphasis on susceptibility of minority chains to thermodynamic attacks as the bear market extended. Let’s take a look at our three pairs of sibling stars — BTC/BCH, ETC/ETH, ZCL/BTCP — and see how they’ve been getting on in their thermodynamic tugs of love.

Where Are They Now?


Since we last met, two have become three! Who would have thought that a raggedy ensemble of protesters bandying together for various reasons might not see eye-to-eye? After another network fragmentation, further division of already slim hashrates and assorted hostilities on either side of the chain split have left prospects for both BSV and BAB (aka the “new BCH”) looking rather dour. There was an expected amount of drama around the fork event as it was planned and contentious, with threats of inter-chain attacks and aggressive market actions. At time of writing, each of BCH’s spawn command ~1 EH/s in comparison to BTC’s 30–50 EH/s long-term range with market pricing BTC $3500, BSV $75 and BAB $125. Data from www.blockchair.com and www.coincap.io.

BCH (grey), BAB (Orange) and BSV (red) network hashrates. Source: cash.coin.dance

Whereas the difference in price and hashrate between BTC and BCH in August 2018 was approximately 10–15:1, the BSV/BAB split and resultant negative sum implications have lengthened this out to 30–40:1 at time of writing in late January 2019. What was then a marginally vulnerable network to 51% attacks is now at serious risk. Regardless of the amount of SHA-256 hash available on distributed marketplaces such as Nicehash and Amazon EC3, it is feasible that a single entity could amass 3% of BTC’s hashrate and perform a solo attackespecially given the amount of shelved / unsold ASIC inventory available at this time.

Fun story: I wrote an even bleaker forecast for BCH’s future in an earlier draft but pared it back after receiving comments that it may be going too far. Ha! Still, some summer ’18 predictions regarding the increasingly uncomfortable situation that the BCH family find themselves in — between chain security and miner bribes — have not yet come to pass (see below tweet) other than checkpointing on BAB. Both networks are exhibiting ever increasing centralisation of network infrastructure, hashrate and human leadership so expect further mandatory “upgrades”. A lot of them, sometimes at very short notice.

As for Bitcoin, the bear market has had an impact on BTC hashrate, ending a parabolic trend that extended much further than the price. Though the price of BTC today is around half of that in the summer (~$7000 versus ~$3500), network hashrates then and now are both in the 30–40 EH/s range. The security model of Bitcoin’s PoW remains largely untested in the ASIC era, with the only obvious network weaknesses being external entities’ political, technical and regulatory actions, miner / foundry oligopolies, cryptographic vulnerabilities and consensus-breaking code errors in implementations such as CVE-2018–17144. Still some time to go before miner subsidy attenuation becomes a pressing concern with respect to fee market development, with everything depending on BTC price to provide the necessary incentives.

The question remains open as to how L2 appendages such as sidechains and off-chain payment channels will affect this by offering alternative transaction pathways which minimise writing to the blockchain and consequentially demand for block space. Side note on the recent launch of Grin — a network based on the novel MimbleWhimble blockchain construction —with a constant, indefinite coin issuance rate (60/min) which may better mitigate against a lack of a transaction fee market in Bitcoin’s subsidy halving regime, by exhibiting a smoothed and steeper initial decline in effective inflation rate.

Monetary Policies of BTC (blue) and Grin (orange) as demonstrated by effective annual supply increase. Source: https://plot.ly/~Bobby_Digital/1/


It’s been an eventful few months in the land of Ethereum-based networks. The expected Ethash FPGAs and ASICs have not been spotted in the wild by any great number but their effects may be being felt already. It will be interesting to see if nonce fingerprints will eventually be evident as has been the case for BTC and XMR.

There have been 51% attacks and deep chain reorgs on minority Ethash chains MUSIC, ELLA and PIRL, with exchange double-spending the typical approach for attackers to ROI. PIRL has taken an approach to mitigate these hazards with client-based solutions which would penalise offline nodes for attempting to rejoin the network and broadcast a rapid series of blocks (PIRLguard). UBQ instead changed its hashing algorithm to avoid Nicehash / ASIC susceptibility.

Although a big theme of this work has been looking at the vulnerabilities of minority PoW chains to attack and defensive strategies — and also that this work was presented at the ETC Summit in autumn 2018 — it was a surprise to see Ethereum Classic itself fall prey to these attacks as well. Read the below articles by Phyrooo and Pyskell to put the temporarily disruptive nature of a majority attack into context. However, in these early innings of cryptocurrency, exploits against exchanges provide a strong disincentive for listing minority PoW networks unless precautions are taken with confirmations required for transactions to be considered final. Seeing altcoin exchanges like Cryptopia listing small PoW networks getting constantly exploited (and suspending operations recently) is a universal warning sign, especially for projects with little value proposition other than speculation and trading.

51% attacks aren’t a network failure
In regards to recent events on Ethereum Classic blockchain, I’ve decided to write a bit about 51% attacks since there’s…medium.com

Your Exchange Needs More Confirmations: The BitConf Measure
In cryptocurrency we regularly advise against accepting zero-conf transactions but are entirely happy to accept…medium.com

It remains to be seen what path ETC will take in order to mitigate attacks, the usual gamut of options are being discussed by stakeholders in a rational way — I was present for the post-mortem call and reiterated my opinion that changing mining algorithm in a knee-jerk response is probably sub-optimal to penalising attackers withholding blocks. It appears that the continued delays of ETH’s attempted transition to a sharded, proof-of-stake network — thereby bequeathing the Ethash majority to ETC or another as-yet-unborn timeline — has exacerbated the issue alongside the protracted bear market and abundance of marshallable hashrate.

There is also discussion of ETH adopting an “ASIC-resistant” algorithm (ProgPoW) while waiting upon Casper and prior to the recent failed Constantinople network upgrade a pro-ProgPoW activist fork faction appeared with the ostensible goal of rejecting the EIP-1234 reduction in mining reward from 3 to 2 ETH per block in addition. It seems inevitable that either (or both) ETH-ASIC and ETH-ProgPoW factions would attempt a fork should the network not move in their favour. Additionally, due to the 11th hour cancellation of the Constantinople upgrade, the so-called “difficulty bomb” has now activated on ETH, having been repeatedly delayed by previous hard forks.

In terms of social layer network politics, both ETH and ETC have had issues of differing types. ETH’s diverse stakeholders are pulling in different directions regarding key technological design choices such as state rent and allegations of insider asymmetry / opacity at crucial meetings. ETC may be suffering from a “tragedy of the commons” scenario as hitherto leading core development company ETCDEV shut its doors due to a funding crunch, with accompanied suspicions of power struggles for prized network resources such as the Github repositories and experienced core developers.

Ratios of hashrate and price between ETH and ETC are approximately 20–30:1, similar to BTC/BAB-BSV ratios discussed above but ETC has an additional light at the end of the tunnel — or is it a “friendly ghost” who will remove incentives for miners to stay on ETH? Data from www.blockchair.com and www.coincap.io.

Just going to leave the below few tweets documenting my ETC Summit talk here. We’ll have to wait and see what happens with ETH regarding PoW to observe the effects downstream in the Ethash ecosystem.


The disconnect between market cap and miner incentives for ledger forks such as BCH/BSV/BAB, BTG and BTCP has been discussed widely in recent months (here for example) but it wasn’t as blindingly obvious last summer. Indeed I received some stern criticism from a reviewer on my claim that market caps for minority ledger forks were heavily inflated in comparison to codebase forks. The below tweet sparked the realisation that all was not well in the land of BTCP.

By combining the UTXO sets of ZCL and BTC, BTCP aimed to leverage the Bitcoin name whilst heavily incentivising ZCL holders and buyers. It worked too, in the final “junk rally” of 2018 ZCL pumped 100x in USD terms before beginning a protracted and decline in price of >99%. ZCL is still bumbling along as a semi-zombified chain, with other spin-off ledger forks and fork-merges attempted. The client software got rather out of date and broken, making it hard to run a node over winter, and indeed to find peers and sync the chain.

With only half a million coins remaining unsupplied from the 21M cap, BTCP finds itself effectively a halving ahead of Bitcoin. With a low token fiat price, miners are not sufficiently incentivised to defend the chain and since there is an abundance of Equihash resource available launching thermodynamic attacks would be trivial. Indeed the hourly cost estimates in the paper had to be continually revised downwards, from >$600/hr initially, to <$50/hr now. As the supply schedule of ZCL, BTCP and BTC are directly comparable (4x factor in block time and subsidy to convert) we can think of BTCP as a time machine taking us forwards to the most pessimistic possible future of any Bitcoin-like network with a halving subsidy and fixed supply limit. This is the timeline in BTTF2 where Biff makes it bigtime.

As expected, attacks were inevitable. ZCL has <5% of the ZEC hashrate and BTCP a further order of magnitude less. With Equihash ASICs on the scene they are sitting ducks. Both tokens are in the $1–1.50 price range, with a ZCL pre-fork ATH around $200. Data from coincap.io and www.coinmetrics.io.

BTCP forkcast: REKT with a high likelihood of upgrades .What’s next for this white dwarf chain? Pretty much every mitigation you can think of has been discussed — Horizen’s chain selection rule update seems to be working for them.

Something else interesting and related! The wizards at CoinMetrics who I had badgered to run BTCP and ZCL nodes last summer, recently uncovered a grand heist with ~2 million coins secretly added to BTCP’s shielded pool at the time of inserting the BTC UTXOs into the ledger. Indeed I had a great deal of problems getting the BTCP client to play nicely, as the few thousand blocks around the time of the operation were enormous and often crashed my workstation when parsing data for analysis. BTCP is the worst of all possible worlds.

iv) Miscellany

Assets atop forked networks

There was a brief note in the paper on security risks of “top heavy” networks, where for example Ethereum can allow for a greater “value” of issued non-native tokens than the base protocol token. Read the great article below by Joe Looney to get a fuller understanding of the various hazards subsumed within this. Let’s think about how non-native assets could be used as bargaining chips by forkers. Offering to honour assets on a ledger fork network may skew hodler’s incentives in ways that are hard to predict.

The Real Cost of Cryptogoods
The “realness” of these tokens is, in many ways, the most important facet to consider as both a token issuer and a…medium.com

#forkgov: Fork-resistance and governance

In the original paper Tezos and Decred were discussed as networks addressing network governance by inhibiting forks in different ways. Taking a high-level perspective, let’s address the most general question: are these two notions meaningfully compatible? If we think of any natural process in the Universe — from the celestial to the tribal — as accretions and communities grow in size and complexity, scalability challenges increase markedly. Minimising accidental chain splits during protocol upgrades is a worthy goal. However, denying a mechanism to allow factions a graceful and orderly exit has upsides in preserving the moat of network effect but at the cost of internal dissonance, which may grow over time. Sound familiar?

One can look at ledger forks in a few different ways as good, bad or neutral:

[Good] A/B/…/Z testing of different technical, economic or philosophical approaches aka “Let the market decide, fork freedom baby!”

[Bad] Deleterious to network effects of nascent currency protocols with respect to Metcalfe or (IMO much more relevant) transactome-informed network capital theory after Gogerty.

[Neutral] An inevitability of entropy and/or finite social scalability as these networks grow and mature it is not realistic to keep all stakeholders sufficiently aligned for optimal network health.

As such, protocol-layer fork resistance and effective public fora with voting mechanisms can certainly be helpful tools, but there is a question as to whether democracy (the tyranny of the majority) should be exercised in all cases. If there was a “block size” style civil war in Tezos or Decred with no acceptable compromise in sight, would the status quo still be the best situation in all cases?

My perspective is that fork-resistance will largely redistribute the manifestations of discontent rather than provide a lasting cure to ills, and the native network governance mechanisms may be gamed by either incumbents or ousters. More time is needed to see how decision-making regarding technical evolution unfolds in both networks. Decred seems to be sitting pretty with a fairly attack-resilient hybrid PoW/PoS system, but there are some “exclusionary forces” in the network leading to the escalating DCR-denominated costs of staking tickets necessary to receive PoS rewards and participate in proposal voting, denying access to the mechanism to smaller holders.

Demand for tickets and staking rewards naturally increases with ongoing issuance, as the widening pool of coin holders wanting to mitigate dilution also does. As the ticket price is dynamic and demand-responsive, it creates upwards pressure which would make tickets inaccessible for a growing proportion of coin holders. At time of writing, “ticket splitting” allowing smaller holders to engage in PoS is available from some stake pools and self-organised collectives but the process is not yet automated in reference clients. On the other hand, the ongoing bear market has seen the USD ticket price fall from ~$8–10k USD at January and May 2018 peaks to ~$2k USD today in late January 2019 so those entering Decred with capital from outside the cryptocurrency domain would likely be undeterred. Data from dcrdata.org and coincap.io.

50 day moving average of DCR staking ticket price. Source: https://explorer.dcrdata.org/charts#ticket-price

Further, as per Parallel Industries’ TokenSpace taxonomy research, staking rewards resemble dividends and token-based governance privileges resemble shareholder rights which make Decred appear a little closer to the traditional definition of a capital asset than pure PoW systems. This may or may not be an issue depending how regulation unfolds. Tezos has those potential issues plus the regulatory risk from the token sale. Decred’s airdrop may not have distributed the coin as fairly as possible but will undoubtedly attract a lower compliance burden than a token sale or premine.

“Activist Forks” & “Unfounder Forks”

Taking this a step further, these dissonant groups may conduct a guerilla campaign inside a network to focus attention on their cause. Last summer, a few anti-KYC factions of Tezos had appeared on social media outlets prior to network launch, however since the launch things have quietened down somewhat. One faction which still apparently intends to create a fork of Tezos changed tact and became a delegated staker within the network whilst continuing to voice dissent —perhaps this “fork activism” can be interpreted as a response to the “fork-resistance” of Tezos.

So, what else could a fork activist do? Take a look around at the ongoing ICO bonfire of the vanities which is largely due to poorly thought out sales of high-friction futility tokens infringing on / attempting to circumvent various regulations around the world. The prospect of removing the token issuers and the tokens themselves once treasuries are liquidated (by themselves, or by lawmakers) and development ceases is quite attractive indeed — will we see a wave of “unfounder forks?”

Conclusions & Future Directions

As with astronomy, there are no conclusions in forkonomy. Only endless observations as entropy drives time along. More work needs to be done analysing blockchain data harvested from nodes, especially on ZCL and BTCP. The quest for candidate network heuristics and tools continues. Studies of Decred’s Politeia proposal & voting system now that it’s operational would be interesting too.

Which is your favourite fork?


Thanks to Richard Red for details and resources regarding Decred’s PoS and ticketing mechanism.

Reaching Everyone, Pt. II: Resilience, Censorship-Resistance and the Bitcoin Blockchain

Source: Kevin Durkin for In The Mesh

ICYMI on In The Mesh, read the next parts there first.

This article is the second in a four-part series by Matt B (@MattoshiN) and Wassim Alsindi (@parallelind) on the use of Bitcoin and the technology stack built atop it to assist those living under oppressive regimes or in conflict zones, and those seeking to flee them.

The detrimental effects of government-mandated money — and conversely, the benefits of sound money adoption — were discussed in the previous article in this series, as were the properties that make Bitcoin a powerful and permissionless alternative to fiat. In this piece, we’ll focus on the technology that makes the protocol so robust and why that matters in today’s world. It’s wise to first provide a definition for Bitcoin, not an easy task. As a complex ensemble of components giving rise to a series of emergent behaviours and phenomena, the what of Bitcoin appears to have a lot of subjective baggage attached. Bitcoin scribe Nic Carter has tackled some epistemological and ontological perspectives of Bitcoin, as informed by wider phenomenology.

The Bitcoin name refers to several things: the broadcast ‘push’ messaging protocol, the peer-to-peer network of nodes running client software and UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) or ‘pieces of bitcoin’. The record of transactions between users’ addresses is notarised using a high-assurance data structure — the ‘blockchain’ — which is synchronised across the network’s nodes allowing a ledger to be constructed permissionlessly by anyone who runs the Bitcoin client software. The global state of the transaction history is kept in agreement. The true state of the ledger is maintained by the thermodynamic competition to create blocks (Proof-of-Work, or PoW ‘mining’), ensuring that massive expenditure of computational power and energy would be required for a prospective attacker to rewrite the blockchain and therefore alter Bitcoin’s historical record. Miners are rewarded with bitcoins for winning the race to find candidate blocks and broadcasting them to the network, provided the protocol has been followed and the network reaches agreement on the next block to be added to the chain. Transactions are included in each block, the order of which is determined by a ‘fee market’, with higher priority transactions incentivising miners to include them with above average fees.

From a user’s perspective, Bitcoin is a payment system that allows them to send payments without regard for borders, governments or geographical distance. Once a transaction has been included in a block, it is said to have a single confirmation. With each subsequent confirmation, it becomes harder for an adversary to reverse, alter or censor it. In times of normal network operation, a transaction is considered final and spendable once it has six confirmations — though in reality the finality is probabilistic rather than absolute. In other words, it is extremely unlikely to be reversed, rather than impossible. Though Bitcoin has not experienced large-scale reorganisations of its ledger history (so-called ‘majority’ or ‘51%’ attacks), it is becoming an increasingly common occurrence in smaller PoW networks. As a user, what could be less confidence-inspiring than the prospect of storing your precious value in a fragile network which gets disrupted relatively easy and often? It’s akin to leaving your front door ajar and wondering why things keep getting messed up.

The one-way SHA-256d hash function plays an integral role in the Bitcoin ecosystem (and in the wider field of public-key cryptography), leveraging the asymmetry of ‘guessing’ or ‘brute-forcing’ a private key associated with a public key versus the ease of proving that said public key is associated with the private key. Similarly, blocks are very difficult to ‘guess’ (enter the PoW algorithm), but it’s trivial to prove that one has been found.

In essence, the hash function is a deterministic process which takes a piece of information (of any length) and returns a piece of information of a specific length. Think of such a function as a meat grinder — you can put a cut of fine Kobe beef through one to produce mince, but it is all but impossible to reverse-engineer the original.

Despite ecocentric narratives around “Bitcoin boiling the oceans”, PoW is the most secure, equitable and effective mechanism for the addition of a block that exists today. It’s entirely possible to swap the algorithm for a consortium or single party creating new blocks via some other mechanism, but this would sacrifice the entire value proposition by centralising production and validation. The notion of ‘autonomous entry’ is vital to the decentralisation of Bitcoin, and, by extension, its most attractive characteristics encapsulated by resilience against external control and coercion: permissionlessness (anyone can be part of the network), censorship-resistance (anyone can transact) and immutability (transactions are final). Since its launch in January 2009, the network has enjoyed 99.983% uptime.

Decentralisation isn’t easily reduced to a binary phenomenon, more closely resembling an emergent, complex and multidimensional spectral characteristic. The notion was originally espoused by de Toqueville as an antonym to the centralisation of state power before and after the French Revolution. A number of approaches to characterise decentralisation as a meaningful or even quantifiable metric have been made, with varying insights and approaches. In a given network, you’ll probably want to consider a myriad of different factors such as the technology, the organisation (or lack thereof) of the participants, the data structures that host the historical record and the topology of the network itself. To all intents and purposes, Bitcoin fares quite well with all of these metrics — hashpower centralisation may be an issue, though game theory and “skin in the game” due to sunk costs in equipment outlay would in most circumstances incentivise an actor in possession of a significant amount to act honestly. An example of this was the mining pool GHash.io which breached 50% of network hashrate in 2014, before widespread commotion and redistribution of computational resource. The exodus was so pronounced that the pool ceased to exist shortly afterwards.

Source: Kevin Durkin for In The Mesh

Let’s attempt a finer grain perspective of what these concepts embody employing this layered approach. Immutability is an attribute primarily observed at the protocol layer — upon which the monetary layer depends for persistence — ensuring the inability of stakeholders or adversaries to alter the transaction record and thereby balances. Censorship-resistance is also primarily observed at the protocol layer, as valid transactions of any type are not prevented from being broadcast to the P2P network, included in blocks and recorded in the network’s shared ledger.Permissionlessness can be regarded as a related phenomenon on the social layer, where no persons or entities are prevented from broadcasting transactions and being included in the ledger, so that anyone can participate and use the network without prejudice.

Decentralisation itself can be taken to mean different things when considering the various layers in our model. Protocol decentralisation would refer to distribution of nodes fully validating the ledger from it’s genesis and incentives for mining and validation of transactions and/or blocks. Monetary decentralisation can be assessed by studying inequality in the concentration of asset distribution, though this is an imperfect heuristic in cryptocurrencies as an entity may control many public keys, which in turn can generate many addresses. A more pressing issue is the quantity of bitcoin held by centralised exchanges — Coinbase alone custodied at least 5% of all BTC as of late 2018.

Social decentralisation pertains to the decision-making and consensus reaching methods of a network, and whether some subset of stakeholder constituents are able to exert undue degrees of explicit or implicit influence over a network’s outcomes. The “implicit user contract” of Bitcoin has been described recently as a positive feedback loop between the protocol and social layers reinforcing each other, and also as an intersubjective consensus arrived at by a distributed group of users, similar to the game theoretical notion of a focal or “Schelling” point.

With this in mind, the oft-quoted concept of ‘code is law’ which refers to immutability in cryptocurrency networks, typically referring more to preserving the intended use and function of a system and its ledger rather than a blind adherence to a software implementation regardless of flaws or vulnerabilities. For example, a recent critical vulnerability in some versions of the “reference implementation” of Bitcoin’s software client — Bitcoin Core — would have allowed an adversary to crash mining nodes on the network and clandestinely create further supply of bitcoin UTXOs, thereby violating the supply cap. There was little resistance to fixing this as it was deemed to be an obvious software bug in clear contradiction of the implicit but mutually understood ‘rules of Bitcoin’. However a similar issue became extremely contentious in the Ethereum network in 2016 following the catastrophic failure of an investment-focused smart contract suite known as “The DAO”, leading to a network split as actions taken to delete certain balances including some “child DAOs” (that were not ascribed to the attacker) was considered a violation of the network’s immutability and the promise of “unstoppable applications”. This led to the creation of a new network keeping the Ethereum name, and a continuation of the original network’s philosophy known as Ethereum Classic, where a significant minority of the original Ethereum community continued mining, developing and maintaining the network built around the canonical blockchain.

Though the above events were both related to unintended function of network software, the lack of contention with the recent Bitcoin Core vulnerability (CVE) as compared to the Ethereum network fragmentation following the exploitation of The DAO can be rationalised by examining the differences in the two sequences of events. The Bitcoin Core bug affected a wallet implementation, whereas The DAO was a suite of on-chain smart contracts holding around 15% of all ETH supply. Secondly, the Bitcoin Core CVE was responsibly disclosed and promptly patched by most miners (who were the most vulnerable to exploitation) whilst Ethereum was perceived to have handled The DAO situation poorly, despite multiple researchers publically calling for caution and further code auditing prior to launch. Finally, there was significant disagreement over the best way to proceed in light of The DAO’s failure, with a number of solutions proposed. An on-chain “carbon vote” was taken to assess the network stakeholders’ moods, though this was marred by low turnout and large votes by single blocs of whales and insiders.

Bitcoin’s key characteristics — scarcity, decentralisation, immutability, censorship-resistance and permissionlessness — are a result of careful design and development over the past decade and represent some of the most significant achievements in computer science and engineering to date. That being said, much work remains to be done in order to realise the ultimate potential of cryptocurrency as an impenetrable guerilla financial armoury empowering the dispossessed peoples of Earth against authoritarianism and oppression.

Next up at In The Mesh: two more instalments in this series and more on the potential of cryptocurrency to empower those living under authoritarianism.

Wassim Alsindi directs research at independent laboratory Parallel Industries, analysing cryptocurrency networks from data-driven and human perspectives. Find him at www.pllel.com and @parallelind on Twitter.

Matt B is a writer and content strategist in the cryptocurrency space with a particular interest in Bitcoin and privacy technology. He can be reached at www.itsmattbit.ch and @MattoshiN on Twitter.

Images by Kevin Durkin for In The Mesh

Reaching Everyone, Pt. I: The Need For Sound Money Outside of the Wealthiest Territories

Reaching Everyone, Pt. I: The Need For Sound Money Outside of the Wealthiest Territories

ICYMI on In The Mesh, read the next parts there first.

This article is the first in a four-part series by Matt ฿ (MattoshiN) and Wassim Alsindi (@parallelind) on the use of Bitcoin and the technology stack built atop it to assist those living under oppressive regimes or in conflict zones, and those seeking to flee them.

In developed nations, the widespread adoption of Bitcoin may not seem all that urgent to many. Indeed, it would be reasonable to say that its need at the individual level hasn’t yet widely manifested itself. While everyone’s excited about Lightning Network transactions overtaking existing fiat gateways for buying coffee or paying for bus tickets, the fact is that if some critical security flaw caused the irreversible collapse of the Bitcoin network overnight, we’d survive. Life would go on. The legacy financial infrastructure is relatively stable in many nations — at least in the short-term. Where cryptocurrency can shine brightest is in areas where economic and/or political actions of governments are failing.

Indeed interest and use of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency generally appears to be on the rise in regions where individuals are desperately in need of forms of wealth and value transfer that cannot be confiscated, debased or censored by authoritarian governments, local mafias or cartels. This has traditionally been difficult.. The state printing press is a machine that, left unchecked, can recklessly and often surreptitiously add to the existing monetary supply in such a way as to cause hyperinflation, a disaster we’ve seen unfold in the Weimar Republic in the 20s and the latter stages of the Roman Empire, and in VenezuelaIran and Zimbabwe at present. As for commodity monies, they have been subject to confiscation and dilution in the past — consider Executive Order 6102 in the US, where the government coerced citizens into turning over bullion and coins.

Aristotle defined the desirable properties of money in the fourth century BC as transportability, fungibility, scarcity and divisibility. Bitcoin largely satisfies the criteria above — analogous to the mining of precious metals, the generation of Bitcoin blocks requires significant expenditure on the part of the miner (hardware, electricity, infrastructure and running costs) to acquire a provably scarce asset with a total supply capped at 21 million coins. Arguably, this makes it rarer than gold, whose supply constraints are merely presumed, and current valuation does not account for that which simply isn’t economically feasible to extract — i.e. in Earth’s oceans or in space.

Like precious metals at present, synthesising a Bitcoin, outside of the parameters explicitly permitted by the network in the form of mining, is impossible. Any attempt at doing so would simply be incompatible with the network. Each coin can be divided into 100,000,000 units, and one UTXO (unspent transaction output) unit is functionally equivalent to another — though there are current limitations to the fungibility of Bitcoin insofar as tainting and blacklisting is concerned. (In an upcoming piece, we’ll be covering some in-protocol and extra-protocol solutions to these challenges).

Evidently, hard money existing in cyberspace would present numerous benefits over physical alternatives: concealability, plausible deniability, programmability, portability and easy global transmission. Precursors to Bitcoin such as Wei Dao’s b-money or Szabo’s bit gold made strides in the direction of solving key distributed computing problems involving the double spending of digital money, although they were imperfect as degrees of centralisation were required prior to the use of proof-of-work and chain selection rules as a mechanism to mitigate Sybil attacks and reach network consensus. Whilst there’s a push towards institutionalising Bitcoin as a marker of establishment acceptance, that was never what the cypherpunk and crypto-anarchist movements from which it originated saw as important. Both have always focused on liberating individuals by arming them with cryptographic tools and protocols to defend their sovereignty from would-be oppressors, hierarchies, rulers and dominators.

2017 report from Freedom House indicates that over half of the world’s countries are ruled by governance structures considered to limit citizen freedom. Of the 195 countries assessed, 87 (45%) were rated ‘Free’, 59 (30%) ‘Partly Free’, and 49 (25%) ‘Not Free’. A common theme that appears to prevail in countries deemed ‘not free’ is the exertion of monetary and economic domination as a key mechanism of social control. This is typically achieved by issuing weak or undesirable fiat currency, which does not retain purchasing power over time due to mismanagement of the monetary issuance policy due to incompetence or malice — or some combination of the two.

The possibility of secure digital money has unbridled potential for both those living under authoritarian regimes, as well as those seeking to escape them. While it may take decades to see Bitcoin cannibalise fiat currencies, it already has great potential as a contender to them. A monetary system operating in parallel to a state-enforced one redistributes the power from the incumbent issuer to the population, and dampens the effectiveness of the state printing press.

Next up at In The Mesh: three more instalments in this series and more on the potential of cryptocurrency to empower those living under authoritarianism.

Wassim Alsindi directs research at independent laboratory Parallel Industries, analysing cryptocurrency networks from data-driven and human perspectives. Find him at www.pllel.com and @parallelind on Twitter.

Matt B is a writer and content strategist in the cryptocurrency space with a particular interest in Bitcoin and privacy technology. He can be reached at www.itsmattbit.ch and @MattoshiN on Twitter.

Images by Kevin Durkin for In The Mesh

Towards an Analytical Discipline of Forkonomy (Summer 2018)

aka Forkonomy, Blockchains & Time Travel

[Note: This work was written and self-published in manuscript form on pllel.com in summer 2018 with last revision 10th August. Figures come from tweets, original manuscript and presentation slides from ETC Summit Forkonomy talk in September 2018. A follow-up commentary is being prepared presently. TLDRs in video and tweet form, scroll down for the full text.]

This work introduces a novel field of cryptocurrency research that the author terms forkonomy, and provides a general overview of recent phenomena in this area. Attention is directed towards the first UTXO consolidation fork-merge combining Zclassic and Bitcoin ledger histories into the so-called Bitcoin Private network. Potential implications for ageing blockchain ecosystems, prominent minority cryptocurrency network fragments and divergent factions are discussed.

1. Introduction and Literature Review: The Hitherto Canon of Forkonomy

1.1 Forkonomy, Forks and Forkability

With respect to cryptocurrencies, forkonomy can be considered to constitute the study of the fragmentation of software codebases and protocol networks comprising distributed communities and/or stakeholders operating in a permissionless or trust-minimised manner. Much as astronomy utilises observation and theory to understand and predict cosmological characteristics and phenomena, here follows an analogous attempt to apply blockchain analytics and historical precedent to with a view to understanding fundamental and emergent characteristics of the forking tendencies of divergent monetary network factions.

In the open source computer science domain, the notion of project codebase forks is well established and occurs when an existing piece of software develops in diverging paths by independent developer constituencies, creating separate and distinct pieces of software. Torvalds’ original Linux kernel from 1991 has been forked into countless descendant projects [1]. With the launch of the Bitcoin network in 2009, the prospect of provable digital scarcity and secure decentralised open source value transfer protocols was realised. This was implemented through the novel combination of systems networking, UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) based accounting, resilient data architecture, cryptography and thermodynamic elements [2]. With a permissionless ledger system employing a blockchain and triple-entry accounting to reach a high degree of probabilistic transaction finality over time, there exists the prospect of both codebase and ledger forks [3]. For the purposes of this work, a blockchain is defined as a temporally sequenced, linear and append-only data structure employing cryptography to facilitate the implementation of a high assurance, tamper-evident transaction ledger.

A codebase fork of a cryptocurrency corresponds closely to the relationship between Linux kernel forks, creating an independent project typically launched with a new genesis block which may share consensus rules but with an entirely different transaction history than its progenitor. An example of this relationship type is that between Bitcoin (BTC) and Litecoin (LTC) and this method may be thought of as a static fork insofar as there is little time-sensitivity to the process. By contrast, a ledger fork creates a separate incompatible network, sharing its history with the progenitor network until the divergent event, commonly referred to as a chain split.

Consensus rule changes or alteration of the network transaction history may be the cause of such a fracture, deliberate or unplanned. This occurrence may be regarded as a dynamic fork since the process takes place in real time. Often when networks upgrade software, consensus rules or implement new features a portion of the network participants may be left behind on a vestigial timeline that lacks developer, community, wallet or exchange support. Recently a fifth of nodes running Bitcoin Cash (BCH) — a SHA-256 minority ledger fork of BTC with significantly relaxed block size limitations — were separated from the BCH network and a non-trivial number of would-be nodes remain disconnected from the canonical BCH blockchain at time of writing weeks later [4].

1.2 What Maketh a Fork?

The distinction between what constitutes a vestigial network and a viable breakaway faction is unclear and difficult to objectively parameterise. There is a significant element of adversarial strategy, political gamesmanship and public signalling of (real or synthetic) intent and support via social media platforms. The notions of critical mass and stakeholder buy-in are ostensibly at play since ecosystem fragmentations would be characterised as strongly negative sum through the invocation of Metcalfe’s Law as regards network effects and hence value proposition [5]. Any blockchain secured thermodynamically by Proof-of-Work (PoW) is susceptible to attack vectors such as so-called 51 % or majority attacks, leading to re-orgs (chain re-organisations) as multiple candidates satisfying chain selection rules emerge. These can result in the potential for double-spending the same funds more than once against entities such as exchanges who do not require sufficient confirmations for transaction finality to be reliable in an adversarial context. Should a network fragment into multiple disconnected populations, adversaries with control of much less significant computational resource would be in reach of majority hashrate either using permanent or rented computation from sources such as Nicehash or Amazon EC3 [6].

A striking example of this was the divergence of the Ethereum developer and leadership cadre (ETH) from the canonical account-oriented Ethereum blockchain (ETC) due to the exploitation of a flawed smart contract project resembling a quasi-securitised decentralised investment fund known as The DAO (Decentralised Autonomous Organisation) [7]. In this case the Ethereum insiders decided to sacrifice immutability and by extension censorship-resistance in order to conduct an effective bailout of DAO participants which came to exercise Too-Big-To-Fail influence over the overall Ethereum network, insider asset holdings, token supply and mindshare [8]. A social media consultation process in conjunction with on-chain voting was employed to arrive at this conclusion though both methods are known to be flawed and gameable [9]. During the irregular state transition process akin to a rollback, a co-ordinated effort between miners, exchanges and developers took place on private channels, exposing the degree of centralisation inherent in the power structures of constituent network participants.

The key event which transformed the canonical Ethereum blockchain (where the DAO attacker kept their spoils) from a vestigial wiped out chain to a viable if contentious minority fork was the decision by Bitsquare and Poloniex exchanges to list the attacker’s timeline as Ethereum Classic (ETC) alongside high-profile mining participants such as Chandler Guo, well resourced financial organisations such as Grayscale Invest (a subsidiary of Digital Currency Group) and former development team members such as Charles Hoskinson to publically declare and deploy support, developers and significant hashrate to defend the original Ethereum network [10]. ETC now exists as an independent and sovereign network with diverging priorities, characteristics and goals to ETH as discussed in Section 4.

1.3 Transient Fork Dynamics in PoW Networks

At a granular level, blockchains grow in height incrementally as new valid blocks are found by miners or validators and added to the canonical chain as determined by the network’s chain selection rules. In PoW consensus mechanisms this leaderless race is conducted through the combination of nonces (an arbitrary variable cycled through sequentially) with the proposed block header to generate hashes which are then compared against the network difficulty which is closely related to the quantity of computational resource directed at the network. Should a hash be found that is below the network’s difficulty requirements, given that no other consensus rules have been violated in the process of constructing the candidate block then it is typically considered valid by the network. As the miner announces the proposed block it propagates across the network typically via a gossip protocol, whereby nodes broadcast all messages to connected peers.

Since cryptographic hash functions are deterministic (albeit with with unpredictable outputs) and a broad subset of possible hash values satisfying the difficulty requirements exist, it is entirely plausible that more than one valid candidate block may be found by competing miners at very similar times. In such an eventuality there begins a block propagation competition of sorts which serves to allow the network to reach consensus on the latest state of the transaction ledger. Since there can only be one block with a particular height, should multiple candidates emerge the prospect of network partition arises if subsets of the population of validating nodes do not overwhelmingly agree on the latest block.

Such partitions may be short-lived in the case of orphans and uncles which represent discarded timelines as the canonical chain built upon another candidate block. The term uncle is used primarily in Ethereum-based networks, as a partial subsidy is allocated to orphaned blocks and therefore acts as a consolation prize for producing a valid block which does not become part of the canonical chain. Ethereum currently subsidises uncles with approximately 3000 ETH per day which equates to over 1 million USD at time of writing [11]. Increasing orphan rates may also be indicative of malicious behaviour on a network such as 51 % attacks, selfish mining or distributed denial of service vectors on reachable nodes which accept incoming peer connections.

Due to the message propagation characteristics of partially synchronous distributed systems such as peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrency networks, there exists an inverse relationship between the median inter-block time (more commonly referred to as the block time) as set by the protocol — 600 seconds in BTC/BCH and 15 seconds in ETH/ETC — and the incidence of orphans and uncles. With shorter block times the likelihood of orphan blocks increases, with some mitigating effect possible through miners aggregating together co-operatively into so-called mining pools. A similar effect of increasing orphan rate would also be expected should the utilisation of block capacity also increase, as larger amounts of information must propagate around the network nodes. ETH uncle rates have been increasing since October 2017 due to mining subsidy reduction, network congestion and increasing block size, whilst ETC’s has remained more consistent, due at least in part to the lower transactional volume on the canonical Ethereum chain [12].

There may be a fundamental basis rooted in natural science that provides insight into the increasing forking tendencies of blockchains. These phenomena may be a result of entropic bias, that is to say divergent paths are those of least resistance in accordance with Newtonian physics. The second law of thermodynamics states that the total entropy (energy unavailable to do useful work) of a closed system undergoing an irreversible process can never decrease. In other words, all that can be done is to arrest the descent of order into chaos is to continue applying effort so as not to allow the amount of available energy to decrease. In the context of network forks, a simple model may be constructed of a PoW cryptocurrency network as a closed thermodynamic system with a growing blockchain (an irreversible process) with mining participants’ cryptographic hashing as the work going into the system. Taking this a step further, despite the ongoing work in the system a chain split would satisfy the second law of thermodynamics as it pertains to increasing disorder in a system. Therefore it may be the case that the energetic dynamics of cryptocurrency networks provides a rational basis for the eventuality of ledger forks in networks which do not strongly penalise or prevent them.

Another issue widely encountered with ledger forks are replay attacks. In the case where two recently partitioned network fragments share identical or very similar codebases and transaction histories, unless specific measures are taken there exists the very real prospect that a network user wanting to send cryptocurrency may inadvertently send the transaction on both network fragments and therefore have the transaction accidentally replayed. Replay protection may be achieved through a small codebase change which allows networks to distinguish transactions as arising from one particular fragment. A related issue which may see an increase in incidence as a result of the development of protocols facilitating the issuance of non-native assets, tokens and off-chain payment channels atop blockchains is the lack of precedence in the event of a fork and chain split in the base layer. As off-chain protocols proliferate and grow in intricacy, functionality and interoperability this issue is likely to increase in complexity.

Selfish mining — also known as block withholding – is a postulated attack vector most effectively employed by mining oligopolists on a PoW network with relatively long block times. It may be conducted by a miner who finds a valid block but instead of immediately broadcasting to peers, the block is withheld and kept secret. The miner then begins to search for a valid block atop the previous clandestine block, with the aim of finding a valid second block before another participant finds an alternative valid first block. It has been claimed that this strategy is more beneficial than honest mining for a sufficiently well-resourced adversary, with 2013 research finding that Bitcoin is vulnerable to block withholding attacks when an adversarial entity controls as little as a quarter of the total computational resource possessed by the network. [13] Naturally this is a far lower bound than the majority hashrate required for 51 % attacks. However the efficacy of this attack vector has been disputed more recently with findings that the strategy only performs well in the period immediately after a difficulty adjustment. With that in mind, a fairly minor change to the Bitcoin protocol (albeit requiring upgrade consensus) could be effected to mitigate the possibility of this attack [14].

Selfish mining is potentially relevant to forks as chain splits may be more likely in the presence of selfish mining participants. A possible heuristic for selfish mining is the issuance of empty blocks (to capture efficiency in propagation time) that Bitmain-controlled mining pool Antpool regularly mined for long periods of time despite network congestion and foregoing transaction fees, indicating a potential benefit greater than an honest miner’s payoff of block reward and transaction fees [15]. There is evidence that a selfish mining attack possibly took place in May 2018 on Monacoin, a Japanese cryptocurrency network, with a succession of blocks only containing the coinbase (mining subsidy) transaction between block heights 1329837 and 1329846. However it is not straightforward to differentiate between 51 % and selfish mining attack vectors as the culprit definitively. As Monacoin’s difficulty adjustment occurring every block the window of opportunity for selfish mining is somewhat limited and the attacker’s spoils corresponded to less than 100000 USD at time of the attack [16]. Stubborn mining builds on this methodology to facilitate a wider range of hybrid strategies between honest and selfish mining extremes [17]. Zhang et al. proposed a selfish mining disincentivisation and fork-resolving policy improvement for BTC chain selection ruleset having explored censorship-attack vectors such as blacklisting via feather-forking [18] as originally characterised hypothetically by Miller in 2013 [19].

Feather-forking can be understood as a strategy available to mining participants (more likely pools than individual entities) to refuse to construct blocks atop a timeline which contains unfavourable transactions within the recent history. By doing so the feather-forking participant may also incentivise other mining participants to also join the feather-fork for a short time. However this vector is rendered ineffective provided that a majority of the computational resource remains honest. Zhang and coauthors propose a mitigating upgrade to Bitcoin named Publish or Perish which would slightly modify the chain selection rule to include all hashes of orphaned blocks in the block currently being worked upon. However the stringent synchronicity assumptions in the proposed initial framework do no match the characteristics of typical cryptocurrency networks and no provision is made against chain splits or intentional forks [20].

1.4 Forks and Network Governance

For a range of reasons, there is often strident resistance to hard forks — irreversible protocol upgrades or relaxing of the existing consensus ruleset — in trust-minimised cryptocurrency networks such as BTC. The lack of controlling entities may lead to a chain split and network partition if the delicate balance of orthogonal stakeholder incentives fails in the presence of a potential divergent event. The implementation of Segregated Witness (SegWit) by the BTC network was eventually achieved in 2017 as a backward-compatible soft fork following several years of intense political and strategic maneuvering by the constituent stakeholders in the BTC network. This off-chain governance process of emergent consensus requiring de facto supermajority or unanimity measured by miner signalling has proven to be an inefficient and gameable mechanism for administering the BTC network [21]. Certain stakeholder constituencies such as the developers maintaining the reference Bitcoin Core software client implementation of BTC could not easily reach agreement with mining oligopolists and so-called big block advocates over the optimum technological trajectory for the BTC network.

The solution combined a fix for transaction malleability and network capacity increase through the restructuring of block contents, principally through the addition of a second Merkle tree which includes witness (signature) data but excludes coinbase transactions. This was initially conceived as a hard fork, and was only found to be implementable as an opt-in soft fork due to inventive engineering. Despite this, major stakeholders of the mining constituency strongly opposed SegWit as it would render a previously clandestine proprietary efficiency advantage known as covert ASICBoost ineffective on the canonical BTC chain [22]. A grassroots BTC community movement campaigning for a so-called User Activated Soft Fork (UASF) for SegWit implementation and a face-saving Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP91) from mining farm operator James Hilliard in tandem facilitated the eventual lock-in of the SegWit upgrade in the summer of 2017 [23].

A new and contentious network partition took place in August 2017 as SegWit locked in for later activation, giving rise to the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network which rejected SegWit and instead opted for linear on-chain scaling. This was implemented in the form of block size increases which have the effect of externalising network resource burden onto node operators, chiefly in the form of increased bandwidth and storage performance requirements. BCH continues to be regarded as a hostile ledger fork of BTC owing to its constituency of high-profile personalities claiming that their network more closely resembles the initial whitepaper specification of the Bitcoin protocol [24] and therefore qualifies as the “real Bitcoin”. By contrast, PoW — also known as Nakamoto consensus – selects the canonical BTC blockchain as the chain with the most accumulated difficulty that satisfies the consensus rules as laid out in the original Satoshi client codebase and Bitcoin whitepaper. By changing the block size and loosening the consensus ruleset without overwhelming agreement from all constituencies of the BTC network, it is difficult to find a basis for BCH proponents’ claims to be the canonical Bitcoin blockchain without invoking appeals to emotion, authority or other logical fallacies. The continuing presence of Craig S. Wright and his claims to be a progenitor of Bitcoin are an example of these attempts at legitimacy [25], though these claims do appear to be substantially weakening.

1.5 Forks and Networks Employing Proof-of-Stake

Alternatives to Nakamoto consensus such as Proof-of-Stake (PoS) and various approaches to Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) are the subject of active exploration in distributed systems research and development. In foregoing the utilisation of brute thermodynamic force to secure the network, PoS consensus protocols must satisfy through alternative means the properties of persistence and liveness. Persistence pertains to the immutability of the transaction history and liveness relates to network synchrony, in that valid transactions will be included in the ledger reliably.

Algorand promises fork-resistance through a novel block minting process employing an accelerated BFT mechanism with constantly changing committees being tasked with block proposal privileges. This protocol has yet to be implemented in a permissionless setting and concerns persist over intellectual property protection and the architecture of stakeholder incentives within the network [26] as there is currently no provision for validator subsidy upon block creation. In pure Proof-of-Stake systems such as Ouroboros there is no thermodynamic element to assign block creation privileges and instead rights are conferred based on control of coin balances.

This results in a different set of fork-based challenges to PoW-oriented networks discussed above. The nothing-at-stake problem arises from the lack of significant resource cost in maintaining multiple timelines in a pure PoS network. In PoW networks resource must be committed to find valid blocks and therefore a significant penalty exists for malicious actors to maintain multiple blockchain timelines. In PoS this penalty is small or absent and therefore it is feasible to proliferate multiple timelines branching from various points in the chain with little drawback if one such fork fails and is not built upon substantially. Nothing-at-stake also raises the possibility of re-orgs should an adversary acquire enough “old stake” from wallets that no longer control balances in the current ledger but previously did. Once sufficient old stake is amassed, the user can then begin to build upon alternative timelines in order to outrun the honest timeline and therefore become the canonical chain should the selection rules not provide protection against this approach. The long-range attack employs nothing-at-stake to seed Byzantine network nodes with dishonest timelines such that a node joining the network can face significant challenges in determining which is the canonical blockchain.

Stake grinding is an attack vector class observed in early PoS implementations employed by Blackcoin, Peercoin and NXT, where block validators take measures to game the “randomness” of validator selection and/or block creation privileges in their favour by grinding – or sequentially searching through parameter space — for a dishonest edge over the intended working of the block creation mechanism [27]. The Cardano network’s proposed PoS-based consensus mechanism family Ouroboros claims to have addressed these attack vectors by employing sophisticated cryptographic elements such as Verifiable Random Functions and Genesis Proofs to facilitate stake-based finality, provable security and dynamic availability such that nodes may join the network at any time and bootstrap from genesis. However implementation into the public Cardano network has yet to take place, so the security model of Ouroboros is yet to be tested in the wild [28].

Given the significant downside potential of real and perceived threats to the resilience and legitimacy of a fragmenting network and loss of associated network effects, the ability of a blockchain-based protocol network to demonstrate fork resistance provides significant strength to its value proposition. Decred is an example of a hybrid PoW/PoS monetary network which is implementing an off-chain proposal and governance mechanism termed Politeia [29]. Since coin-holders have voting rights based on stake weight, they have the ability to keep miners and developer constituencies honest through the mechanism to reach decisions by majority stakeholder consensus on matters including hard forks. These lessons were ostensibly learned through the developer team’s experiences in writing a BTC client which they felt was not appraised objectively by the Bitcoin Core developer ecosystem. Decred’s fork resistance is effectively achieved by the fact that most stakeholders would be non-voting on a minority chain, it would remain stalled as blocks would not be created or propagated across the upstart network.

Recently another class of fork has emerged, caused by factionalisation before networks launch and/or code is open sourced. These appear similar to contentious political factions in existing blockchain networks though there is little concrete information in the public sphere. Recently several distinct entities have arisen within the pre-functional Tezos ecosystem who do not support the decisions of Dynamic Leger Solutions (DLS) as they move towards launching their mainnet, particularly regarding the recent decision to require de-anonymising Know-Your-Customer (KYC) information from their 2017 token offering donations taken last year which raised the equivalent of several hundred million USD. Aside from the ostensible paradox of rather security-like donations requiring Anti-Money Laundering (AML) procedures for future claims on the DLS-Tezos network, at the time of writing three alternative proposed non-KYC implementations exist: TzLibre, nTezos and OpenTezos. Little is publically known about these groups, but the effective bifurcation of the pre-functional network into white KYC and black non-KYC populations is a phenomenon likely to repeat as blockchain forensic tools become more widely adopted by law enforcement agencies [30]. At time of writing, Tezos has an operational betanet and TZLibre appears to have adjusted strategy, becoming a leading delegated staker – or baker in the Tezos parlance – within the DLS-Tezos network and campaigning for a reversal of the KYC implementation decision.

1.6 Forks in Favour of ASIC-Resistance

Since SHA-256 Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) were first developed in 2012 for the Bitcoin network, there has been a trend among upstart networks to choose alternative hashing algorithms so as to avoid the problems associated with being a minority network in relation to a particular type of computational resource. A series of existing and new algorithms such as Scrypt, CryptoNight, Blake 2b, Ethash and Equihash with greatly increased memory requirements relative to SHA-256 were implemented into networks such as Litecoin, Monero, Siacoin, Ethereum and Zcash respectively, under the supposition that memory-hardness would prevent the development of ASICs for these algorithms as the ability to parallelise processes would be greatly reduced via the system memory bottleneck. Such algorithms were commonly referred to as ASIC-resistant, however this does not appear to have remained the case as there now exist ASICs for all of the above hash functions.

The failure to prevent specialised hardware development was unavoidable in retrospect. As cryptocurrency network valuations increased the incentives for equipment manufacturers to allocate the substantial capital to develop specialised integrated circuits outweighed the downside risks. Other contributing factors were optimisations in mining hardware engineering, steps forward in semiconductor manufacture and margin compression in the more mature SHA-256 ASIC marketplace encouraging hardware manufacturers to diversify. As the mining hardware business is extremely competitive, development of ASICs for new algorithms was conducted with utmost secrecy so participants would not lose their early-mover advantage. Indeed it is commonly accepted (if not conclusively proven) that many mining manufacturers will mine in secret prior to announcing their equipment and offering units for sale. Light testing of electronic equipment prior to despatch is uncontroversial as part of a quality assurance process, however there have been widespread accusations that ASIC manufacturers — or partners for the purposes of plausible deniability — deploy ASICs to networks clandestinely and gradually with hashrate spread over several pools to avoid detection [31]. Further, there have been a number of instances whereby a new ASIC type would be announced (by a manufacturer such as Baikal, Innosilicon or Bitmain) and an impression of limited run scarcity would be implied, to maintain a value proposition for the profitability of the device. There would then follow what may be regarded as supply dumping where the manufacturer sells so many ASICs that the possibility of a purchaser achieving a return on investment would be nil. There is also a question mark over the network security of cryptocurrencies with clandestine ASICs online, as an equipment manufacturer “testing” large batches of their equipment would have an asymmetric edge over existing participants employing Central Processing Unit (CPU), Graphics Processing Unit, (GPU) or Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) and may easily garner a majority of network hashrate making 51 % attacks trivial, with grave impact on network value proposition. Some networks that have adopted the philosophy of ASIC-resistance — with the goal of maximising decentralisation at the mining level — reacted to the suspicion or discovery of ASICs on their network by proposing a fork (hard or soft depending on the circumstances) to change the hashing algorithm to an alternative candidate sufficiently distinct from the original so as to render the ASICs ineffective. As in all cases with forks to irreversibly change mining parameters on PoW networks, should sufficient computational resource remain on the original chain then it has a prospect of avoiding wipeout and surviving as a sovereign network. In this case where large quantities of ASICs were produced and then threatened with being rendered incompatible through hashing algorithm adjustment, these machines would most likely be obliged to remain on the original chain, or to switch to mining on a smaller network which did not undergo such a fork. It has been postulated that new CPU architectures such as Vector Processors may be present in current or forthcoming generations of ASICs which would allow for a greater ability to remain on their intended network after hard forks to change hashing algorithms. By analysing the limited efficiency gains in ASICs developed for memory-hard algorithms such as Ethash compared to those observed previously realised for SHA-256, an alternative technical configuration with greater computational flexibility than traditional ASICs is a plausible though unconfirmed hypothesis [32].

Providing a counterpoint to the above motivations, Daian asserts that ASICs are inevitable for algorithms which are employed on sufficiently valuable networks. Therefore they should be accepted as emergent phenomena arising from the success of networks adopting those particular hashing algorithms. As ASICs realise large efficiency gains over general-purpose hardware in terms of operational costs (energy efficiency as measured in hashes per Watt) and capital outlay (hashes per dollar cost of ASIC) therefore lending themselves to industrial mining facilities and the economies of scale they can access. Therefore the reaction of forking to change hashing algorithm only provides a temporary respite from the development of specialised hardware, and indeed regularly scheduled tweaks may become less effective as more versatile hardware is designed. Indeed such protocol changes may favour well-resourced hardware manufacturers as they will be more able to deploy capital and resources to produce new hardware. The decision making process involved in enacting such protocol changes may also be subject to corruption or sub-optimal outcome, as with Ethereum’s chain split following the failure of The DAO as discussed in Section 1.3 [33].

Two recent networks which took different approaches to the manifestation of ASICs were Monero and Siacoin. Monero (XMR) is a privacy-focused cryptocurrency with a healthy community, active developer ecosystem and strong philosophy of maintaining decentralisation at the mining level through the promotion of ASIC-resistance in favour of GPU mining. As XMR nethash began to climb steeply in January and February 2018, ASIC mining was suspected to be taking place surreptitiously, followed by announcements by manufacturers Bitmain and Baikal that ASICs for XMR were available for imminent shipping [34]. In April 2018, Monero underwent its twice-annual scheduled hard fork which facilitates regular protocol upgrade and included an adjustment to the CryptoNight hashing algorithm to render the ASICs ineffective. Around the time of the hard fork, XMR experienced a sudden 80 % decline in nethash with stabilisation at around 40–50 % decline. Prior to the fork, over 90 % of hashrate was of unknown/anonymous origin, whereas post-fork the proportion of hashrate with unknown provenance had stabilised around 30–40 %. Therefore the level of transparency as to distribution and provenance of computational resource increased as much as coarse heuristics as pool activity allow inference. Some questions remain over the methods employed to achieve consensus on the algorithm change, with some appeals for patience or to maintain the status quo. There was also a rather surreal incidence of extreme price volatility of the mining equipment with fire sales as Monero’s hard fork was implemented. Baikal was advertising a “buy one, get four free” offer on the ASICs which would have exacerbated dumping of commodity nethash on ASIC-friendly CryptoNight networks. A number of putative breakaway Monero factions announcing support for the original chain also announced themselves but do appear to have largely waned into irrelevance [35].

Siacoin (SC) is a network providing secure and censorship-resistant data storage via a decentralised P2P architecture. A hardware manufacturer named Obelisk with strong ties to the Siacoin founders had a Blake 2b ASIC under development and had taken a significant amount of pre-orders for the SC1. Bitmain appears to have intercepted information relating to this device and leveraged their economies of scale and expedience to front-run the Obelisk miners by delivering the Antminer A3 before them and furthermore offering aggressive discounts to Obelisk pre-order customers. This may have been through the utilisation of faster but sub-optimal integrated circuit development processes such as place-and-route rather than fully-custom routing as Obelisk employed. Unbeknownst to outsiders, Obelisk had engineering a second fallback algorithm into their equipment so that a soft fork adjustment to the Siacoin protocol would be sufficient to render the Bitmain ASICs ineffective. However this was not exercised and instead an uncontentious hard fork was conducted to recalibrate the difficult adjustment algorithm and block time in anticipation of large increase in network hashrate [36].

2. Research Aims and Methodology

2.1 What does Forkonomy Aim To Achieve?

As a putative analytical discipline in the early stages of development, forkonomy is as much a perspective as a coherent set of tools and methods at present. The notion of performing comparative analysis on ledger forks is not new, however this somewhat high-level combination of quantitative observation and qualitative inference is not commonly applied to characterise the emergent phenomena exhibited in cryptocurrencies. By taking a wider view than the present and recent past, forkonomy aims to provide insight into the possible fates of blockchain-oriented P2P monetary networks. A future aim is to build sufficiently sophisticated models such that even-handed forecasts of the probabilities of future scenarios may be elucidated from network observation and simulation. Many of the concepts employed are borrowed from the disciplines of astronomy, cosmology and physics, which the author previously researched.

2.2 Research Methods and Resources

This work has relied on numerous primary and secondary data sources as cited in the text. Blockchain analytics of BTC, BCH, ETH, ETC, XMR, MONA, ZCL and BTCP was achieved through the use of block explorers Blockchair.com, Blockchain.info, Etherscan.io, Etherhub.io, Bchain.info, Monerohash.com and Bitinfocharts.com with data exported in CSV or JSON formats. This was imported into the statistical computing suite RStudio (built upon R) for cleaning, treatment, analysis and visualisations. Network-wide observation and inference was conducted using publically available sources Coin.dance for node count and implementation versions for BTC and BCH, Crypto51.app for ZCL and BTCP network hashrates, Doublespend.cash for malleated transactions on BCH, Coinmetrics.io for high-level network heuristics and Onchainfx.com for networks’ token price, supply issuance and monetary policy.

3. Case Study: Advent of the Fork-Merge

3.1 Introduction

In a 2017 presentation at Breaking Bitcoin conference, Eric Lombrozo postulated the theoretical possibility of a managed process of convergence of chains sharing the same provenance and similar codebase which may be thought of as a chainmerger. The idea was developed further by Eric Wall ostensibly as potential a mechanism for BTC and BCH to reunite post-chain split, but no prominent examples exist in the wild. This may be subject to entropic bias, that is to say divergent paths are those of least resistance in accordance with thermodynamics as discussed in Section 1.3 [37].

3.2 Fork-Merge through UTXO Cross-Chain Consolidation

Building on the chainmerger concept outlined above, the notion of a fork-merge was introduced earlier this year as the mechanism by which a ledger fork of BTC entitled Bitcoin Private (BTCP) could be artificially synthesised from an Equihash PoW network named Zclassic (ZCL), itself a codebase fork of Zcash (ZEC) which in turn was originally derived from the BTC codebase [38]. It is somewhat similar to the “Fork + Merge” operation in Git-based repository protocols. Since the BTC and ZCL networks possess different histories as evinced by their unique UTXO sets and the codebase had additionally diverged further, this was not a trivial process [39] and may be further hindered by entropic bias. The UTXO model of ledger accounting introduced by Bitcoin is managed by tracking the outputs of transactions as either spent or unspent. Unspent transaction outputs contribute to coin-holders’ balances whereas spent outputs do not. In order to maintain such a ledger, each transaction may be comprised of one or more inputs (UTXOs with non-zero balances) and two or more outputs. This is because UTXOs may not be partially spent, and thus any value remaining in an UTXO after transaction is completed must be returned as a new “change” UTXO in an analogous manner to spending a paper fiat currency banknote and being returned different notes and coins.

The quantitative parameters underlying this cross-chain UTXO consolidation warrant further examination. Both BTC and ZCL networks possess equivalent relationships controlling mining subsidy emission over time.

ZCL has a target block time of 150 seconds, block reward of 12.5 ZCL, 840000 block reward halving period (not yet reached) and 21 million ZCL maximum supply.

BTC has a 600 second target block time with initial reward of 50 BTC per block, though this has experienced two subsidy halvings to the present value of 12.5 BTC per block — with a current approximate BTC block height of 540000 and halving period of 210000 blocks. Figure 1 displays the characteristics of BTC mining subsidy and monetary issuance over time.

As the time-per-halving is broadly equal on both networks the number of halvings may be used as an approximate heuristic for the maturity of the network. ZCL having experienced no halving to date can be considered a young network, characterised by a high mining subsidy which incentivises miners to secure the chain at the expense of a high effective annual supply inflation rate of approximately 100 %, with approximately 4.5 of 21 million total ZCL coins issued. BTC is halfway between its second and third halvings and as such can be thought of as a mature network. The subsidy has already declined 75 % since network launch with approximately 17 of 21 million total BTC mined and an effective annual supply inflation of around 4 %. During periods of elevated demand for block space, a transaction fee market has emerged which at peak times has provided miners with greater income than the block reward [40]. This occurrence is crucial to the long-term viability of all blockchain-based monetary networks that employ PoW for security and have a fixed asymptotic supply curve, as the network must continue to incentivise miners to deliver hashpower [41]. Most UTXO-based cryptocurrencies have also adopted BTC’s monetary issuance policy to claim analogous value propositions centred around supply limitations.

By merging these UTXO sets, BTCP has synthetically created an Equihash blockchain network with approximately 500000 of 21 million coins yet to be issued, negligible annualised supply inflation and therefore a meagre mining subsidy of 1.5625 BTCP, corresponding to approximately 0.0035 BTC at time of writing. Unlike BTC however, BTCP has not been able to bootstrap a transaction fee market, and in order to properly incentivise miners to protect the network the transaction fees would have to be greater than the transaction value itself.

Additional idiosyncratic risks to BTCP mining profitability arise from possible supply shocks from involuntary coin holders who would be more likely to commence liquidation in the event of sudden BTCP coin price rises, and the ongoing emergence of specialised Equihash ASIC mining hardware from multiple hardware suppliers deploying more plentiful commodity hashrate [42].

Fig. 1. The relationship between BTC block height, mining subsidy and supply issuance.

3.3 Forkonomics: The Impact of Fork-Merging on Monetary Networks

The fork-merge process has effectively created an elderly BTCP blockchain between third and fourth halvings (as seen in Figure 2), with little incentive for miners to protect and therefore minimal value proposition as a PoW monetary network. Much of the BTCP UTXOs involuntarily assigned to BTC UTXO owners have gone uncollected, undoubtedly due to the low value of the 1:1 airdrop for the BTC side or prevention of private key compromise risk. In many respects BTCP is now experiencing an eternal post-fork hangover caused by the lopsided incentive structures engineered into the fork-merge. The event asymmetrically benefited ZCL holders which had a much lower per coin price than BTC but also entitled holders to a 1:1 airdrop. This was particularly the case for those who held ZCL balances prior to the announcement of the fork-merge, as the market price of ZCL experienced an approximate hundredfold increase in USD terms within a 30 day period prior to the fork-merge [43].

Due to the disparity in mining subsidy value and network age (not “effective maturity” as discussed above) between ZCL and BTCP, ZCL appears to retain a reasonably cohesive constituency of stakeholders — miners, exchanges, users and so on — despite many developers abandoning the project at time of fork. In contrast, BTCP seems to have lost most of its pre-fork proponents and has failed to acquire listing on major exchanges to access liquidity in order to improve its value proposition as a speculative asset. BTCP vs ZCL may be considered an extreme case of fork-induced emission curve fatigue. That is to say that the fork-merge process has resulted in a cryptocurrency network simultaneously vulnerable to majority attacks and unable to bootstrap itself into a secure and reliable state as the block subsidy available in an elderly network does not sufficiently incentivise computational resource in the absence of an on-chain transaction fee market. The lack of evidence of such attacks on BTCP may be due to the lack of on-chain transaction volume and associated fiat equivalent value making even a low-cost attack a waste of resource. Furthermore trading platforms do appear to anticipate the likelihood of such an attack as typically 25–50 confirmations are required to consider a BTCP deposit confirmed and spendable at an exchange.

In 2018 there has been an emerging trend of ledger forks of BTC possessing greatly inflated market capitalisations in comparison to codebase forks with virgin genesis blocks and ledgers. This is at least in part due to the effective sequestration of large proportions of the supply, essentially attention-locked since BTC UTXO owners have neither financial nor ideological motivation to participate at the potential expense and inconvenience of accessing private keys. Observable on-chain transaction volume (not including shielded transactions which typically constitute a tiny minority of usage) is minimal on both BTCP and ZCL networks with significantly under one million USD average daily volume, whilst BTC moves approximately several billion USD equivalent per day. In terms of hashrate ZCL has approximately 25 times more network hashrate than BTCP with a nominal market capitalisation of 3 times less [44]. The consequence of this is that the BTCP chain is rendered extremely vulnerable to 51 % attacks with a trivial vector employing rented hashrate — using figures at time of writing the 1 hour cost of a majority attack was approximately 200 USD. For a network with a nominal value (using market capitalisation as a coarse heuristic) of approximately one hundred million USD, the prospect for transaction disruption seems sufficiently high to preclude any realistic proposition of BTCP as a monetary network. If majority takeovers become trivial in a cryptocurrency network, exchanges will be reticent to list it as they would be the primary victims of double-spending attacks when not requiring sufficient confirmations for transaction finality to be beyond doubt [45].

Fig. 2. Generalised emission curve and supply schema for cryptocurrency networks deriving their accounting and monetary characteristics from Bitcoin. Each “step down” represents a halving of block subsidy, halving in effective supply inflation rate and an advancement in the lifecycle phase of a blockchain network. Emission curve and supply schema for ZCL (blue), BTC (green) and BTCP (orange) networks compared visually.

4. Discussion: Implications for Ageing Blockchains and Prominent Minority Forks

The emission curve fatigue that BTCP is experiencing, combined with lack of transaction fee market results in an insecure network with absent value proposition. Indeed this is one of the possible futures for any elderly PoW blockchain. By analogy with stellar lifecycles, the moniker white dwarf chain may be applied to BTCP. In common with the celestial remnant, high maturity and low economic gravity prevent the network from attracting substantive accretion, eventually no longer possessing the critical mass to function. There is a prospect that BTCP will attempt a transition to PoS or dPoW in order to seek refuge from thermodynamic attacks. Recently the prospect of confiscation of “inactive” UTXOs in order to liberate coin supply from attention-locked holders of BTCP in order to provide further miner subsidy in order to attract greater hashrate has emerged [39]. The disingenuous trope of “Satoshi’s Vision” was invoked by BTCP proponents in the pre-fork marketing, though it is difficult to see how Satoshi Nakamoto’s cypherpunk principles were respected and honoured through the mechanism of confiscating UTXOs under his control.

An alternative outcome termed a chain death spiral is also a possibility for BTCP. Should Equihash resource be sufficiently incentivised to be directed elsewhere, the network may stop issuing blocks altogether. This was a particular concern for BTC at the time of the BCH chain split, though ironically it was BCH that produced severely tardy blocks with block intervals reaching many hours for some time. This was due to the BCH network inheriting the BTC network’s difficulty whilst only possessing a fraction of the former BTC hashrate. A customised difficulty adjustment algorithm was invoked to rapidly adjust the BCH network difficulty downwards to reflect the much lower nethash of the minority SHA-256 BCH network fragment. The lack of such a difficulty adjustment mechanism in BTC beyond the original specification’s 2016 block window came to be perceived as a potential attack vector from a hostile ledger fork [46].

The significance of implications arising from the BTCP case study are due to the lack of organically elderly blockchain networks in existence today. Emergent behaviours that are observed in these distributed environments may vary from hypothetical studies utilising cryptoeconomic, distributed systems or game theoretical perspectives. Due in part to the BCH difficulty adjustment process — and successor algorithms performing analogous functions — BTC and BCH have already diverged by approximately seven thousand blocks chain length (Figure 3) which corresponds to around 50 days greater effective age of BCH in the year since chain split. The consequence is that, ceteris paribus, the BCH blockchain will reach its next block subsidy halving sooner than BTC. Coupled with the fact that BCH shares the SHA-256 mining algorithm with BTC but now has approximately ten times less hashrate (Figure 4), there is declining economic incentive for miners to secure the minority BCH network [47]. With no fix currently implemented for transaction malleability due to BCH’s rejection of SegWit and no alternative ready to deploy, 51 % attacks have become trivial to conduct by several BTC mining pools and double spent transactions are growing in frequency, calling any notion of monetary soundness or payment utility proposition into serious question [48].

Fig. 3. Chain dynamics of BTC (blue) and BCH (red) networks August 2017–18, as visualised through the benchmarking of “chain time” versus Earth time. Data from Blockchair.com.
Forkonomy assessment of BTCP (Aug/Sep 2018)

Through the observation of networks which in the past competed for ASIC hashrate such as Litecoin and Dogecoin, it has been observed that once the security of a PoW network sharing a mining algorithm with a dominant competitor is believed to be compromised, two main categories of remedial action may be utilised. To preserve decentralisation and network sovereignty, the adoption of an alternative and unique PoW algorithm is an option but would be unpalatable for an ASIC-oriented network such as BCH. An alternative is to implement merge-mining whereby PoW on the dominant network for a particular algorithm counts towards PoW on the merge-mined network [49], or periodic checkpoint notarisation – also known as delayed PoW – of latest block hash into the most secure blockchain as utilised by minority Equihash network Komodo [50]. Confiscation of “inactive” UTXOs or account balances has also been proposed by minority forks such as United Bitcoin and Bitcoin Private as discussed above.

The canonical Ethereum network ETC may have a different future to the typical minority branch, as development paths between forks have diverged and ETH intends to attempt transition to PoS with the Casper family of consensus protocols [51], accompanied by a significant reduction in block issuance subsidy to 0.6 ETH per block [52]. Should this occur as multiple competing Ethash ASICs and high performance FPGA bitstreams are distributed more widely, ETC may retain a strong value proposition as the canonical, decentralised and immutable Ethereum network with a sound monetary policy and thermodynamically assured network security. As Figure 5 shows, ETH has an annual equivalent supply inflation of approximately 7.5 % and no maximum limit on token supply, whereas ETC’s inflation is around 5.75% and projected to decrease much more rapidly due to a fixed supply limit. ETC has also removed the so-called difficulty bomb which is intended to disincentivise mining by making it increasingly unprofitable.

Fig. 4. Difficulty (as proxy heuristic for hashrate) comparision of BTC (black) and BCH (grey) networks August 2017–18. Data from Blockchair.com
Fig. 5. All-time supply inflation comparison of ETC (black) and ETH (grey). Data from ECIP1017 [53].

5. Future Perspectives on Forks

As with any novel field of study many open questions remain as to how new technologies, emergent phenomena and threats caused by internal factions within open source protocol networks or external entities such as rival blockchains, lawmakers and silicon foundries may influence the forking tendencies of cryptocurrency networks. Sztorc’s notion of fork futures has merit insofar as competing visions may be assessed and priced in real time by the marketplace prior to implementation. This facilitates the assessment of support for the various options proposed by competing factions, potentially preventing quite a substantial proportion of chain splits by using the market to assess the value of competing ideas. [54].

Velvet forks as proposed by Kiayias et al. could help mitigate potential network consensus failures by increasing inclusiveness and compatibility of protocol upgrades, by being minimally invasive with respect to network participants not running the velvet fork upgrade [28]. An example of successful implementation of a velvet fork has been found in decentralised mining pool P2Pool’s sharechain, which keeps track of mining shares which correspond to block hashes close to but not below the network difficulty limit. In order to reduce reward variance for individual participants in the mining pool, shares are kept track of by the sharechain [55].

The ongoing litigation against the cryptocurrency exchange Bitgrail involves an attempt to legally enforce a rollback of the Nano (formerly Raiblocks) block-lattice network to reclaim tokens which were lost due to software vulnerabilities. It is hard to envisage an outcome whereby a legal pronouncement is made which carries sufficiently global or borderless jurisdiction to coerce large constituencies of a network to behave contra to their incentives. Most likely this would trigger a factional network disintegration event [56].

Hypothesising more broadly, as the canon of forkonomy expands to include new and emergent phenomena there may develop further aesthetic disciplines with which to codify, classify and characterise trust-minimised network partitions in all their forms. As with celestial outcomes, the interplay of enthalpy and entropy could provide a generalised basis for modelling the fate of cryptocurrency networks and further work is underway in this area. Moving from the ontological and observational basis presented here as forkonomy (by analogy with astronomy) and forkonomics (by analogy with economics), epistemological treatises may be considered forkology [57] and philosophical approaches forkosophy.


Thanks to numerous esteemed colleagues for proof-reading, comments and corrections.


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